{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d2aa42f-e532-45a6-85cc-961422ca2e28", "symbol": "FTRI", "name": "FIRST TRUST INDXX GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.667, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.14, "architecture_energy": 15.505, "architecture_maturity": 62.43, "architecture_confidence": 54.893, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.57, "rotation_up": 34.33, "upward_expansion": 20.82, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 20.94, "downward_expansion": 57.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.82368, 16.588097, 16.758926, 17.002131 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.5577, "trend_reference": 17.265299, "distance_from_trend": 0.016936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.73869, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.096486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008507, "excess_performance": -0.178947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014791, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008507, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.151769, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 386376, "relative_activity": 1.918373, "balance": 1.151769, "dry_up": 0.930986, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036912, "annualized_volatility": 0.208344, "from_high_reference": -0.078653, "from_low_reference": 0.243872 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.265299, "fair_value_reference": 13.73869, "structural_low": 15.646756, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.034982, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.042526, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.113967, "worst_return": -0.045124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.105172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.158285, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.126007, "worst_return": 0.033379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.207062, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.227631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231591, "worst_return": 0.044336, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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16.906883, 17.122989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.175, "volume": 146330, "typical_volume": 211065.7, "trend": 17.18245, "fair_value": 13.642296, "relative_strength": -10.245798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.354872, "energy": 71.962763, "activity_lines": [ 16.161778, 16.374078, 16.802556, 17.059524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.6127, "volume": 100293, "typical_volume": 199205.75, "trend": 17.206084, "fair_value": 13.671382, "relative_strength": -6.225545, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.658815, "energy": 45.600024, "activity_lines": [ 16.298313, 16.383832, 16.753233, 17.022766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.5578, "volume": 117034, "typical_volume": 191039.15, "trend": 17.229258, "fair_value": 13.701566, "relative_strength": -6.969189, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.352246, "energy": 32.737029, "activity_lines": [ 16.41462, 16.391344, 16.705244, 16.980941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.5577, "volume": 386376, "typical_volume": 201408.15, "trend": 17.265299, "fair_value": 13.73869, "relative_strength": -6.096486, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.140005, "energy": 15.5055, "activity_lines": [ 16.82368, 16.588097, 16.758926, 17.002131 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }