{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d30f035-d5a6-4c92-94a9-8fa25e609d6a", "symbol": "300019", "name": "Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.975, "architecture_energy": 78.567, "architecture_maturity": 54.765, "architecture_confidence": 79.664, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.18, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 34.22, "rotation_down": 72.83, "downward_expansion": 89.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.765333, 15.956364, 16.873089, 17.699016 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.95, "trend_reference": 18.91355, "distance_from_trend": -0.209561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.545841, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.8919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318061, "excess_performance": -0.325461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09645, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207816, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.658085, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44228902, "relative_activity": 1.029129, "balance": 1.658085, "dry_up": 1.152568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124466, "annualized_volatility": 0.601823, "from_high_reference": -0.429628, "from_low_reference": 0.12406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.91355, "fair_value_reference": 16.545841, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.011207, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.005297, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.302112, "worst_return": -0.256608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.079355, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.042743, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.338117, "worst_return": -0.158491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070645, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.01768, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.656566, "worst_return": -0.189706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 14.18, "volume": 87009844, "typical_volume": 46689040.05, "trend": 19.536829, "fair_value": 16.572587, "relative_strength": -31.105018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.884367, "energy": 39.179832, "activity_lines": [ 17.377333, 17.593818, 17.978397, 18.669932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.5, "volume": 36861915, "typical_volume": 45302790.55, "trend": 19.310163, "fair_value": 16.557696, "relative_strength": -33.871218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.169954, "energy": 68.693375, "activity_lines": [ 15.954, 16.827091, 17.496752, 18.28046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.44, "volume": 30035253, "typical_volume": 43380735.05, "trend": 19.09221, "fair_value": 16.547859, "relative_strength": -27.417214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.223936, "energy": 77.508008, "activity_lines": [ 15.150667, 16.311273, 17.142631, 17.966255 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.95, "volume": 44228902, "typical_volume": 42977043.35, "trend": 18.91355, "fair_value": 16.545841, "relative_strength": -27.8919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.974611, "energy": 78.567385, "activity_lines": [ 14.765333, 15.956364, 16.873089, 17.699016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }