{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d3312dd-567f-42b4-93ca-794eda8f783a", "symbol": "SUMEETINDS", "name": "Sumeet Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.938, "architecture_energy": 72.129, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.29, "rotation_up": 16.85, "upward_expansion": 21.43, "deceleration": 29.29, "rotation_down": 69.4, "downward_expansion": 83.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.103334, 26.190919, 27.215409, 27.643099 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.280001, "trend_reference": 27.836351, "distance_from_trend": -0.379229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.07776, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139346, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.010689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323944, "excess_performance": -0.280234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.379229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054482, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139346, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.755682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.400107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.537811, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323944, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.949303, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 424220, "relative_activity": 0.070641, "balance": 6.949303, "dry_up": 2.346447, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193232, "annualized_volatility": 0.729381, "from_high_reference": -0.573333, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.836351, "fair_value_reference": 20.07776, "structural_low": 17.280001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.021053, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.570513, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.108974, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109508, "worst_return": -0.248276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064373, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.015871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.686207, "worst_return": -0.717949, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126639, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.301415, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179905, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.239077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224764, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.47, "volume": 4060, "typical_volume": 68890.75, "trend": 10.812083, "fair_value": 21.890705, "relative_strength": -47.989747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.813809, "energy": 29.469861, "activity_lines": [ 29.092, 27.993866, 28.472038, 28.345555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.98, "volume": 43872661, "typical_volume": 5508472.0, "trend": 28.411351, "fair_value": 19.817375, "relative_strength": 18.784677, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.074739, "energy": 58.267011, "activity_lines": [ 31.146666, 29.081311, 28.968892, 28.711683 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.77, "volume": 11931319, "typical_volume": 6064038.7, "trend": 28.364351, "fair_value": 19.9401, "relative_strength": 2.654387, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.578562, "energy": 46.354732, "activity_lines": [ 30.816666, 29.152029, 28.938509, 28.734822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.290001, "volume": 135906, "typical_volume": 6029037.65, "trend": 28.127351, "fair_value": 20.023753, "relative_strength": -22.388349, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.77393, "energy": 14.243093, "activity_lines": [ 28.131333, 28.058928, 28.299887, 28.342928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.280001, "volume": 424220, "typical_volume": 6005260.65, "trend": 27.836351, "fair_value": 20.07776, "relative_strength": -40.010689, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.93843, "energy": 72.128505, "activity_lines": [ 24.103334, 26.190919, 27.215409, 27.643099 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }