{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d3a14aa-2d07-4c2a-b1ba-3da99c5f3c86", "symbol": "002675", "name": "Yantai Dongcheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 78.666, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.185, "architecture_energy": 11.362, "architecture_maturity": 12.477, "architecture_confidence": 64.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.33, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 18.98, "deceleration": 40.47, "rotation_down": 27.79, "downward_expansion": 55.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.813333, 12.737636, 12.792689, 12.926571 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.16, "trend_reference": 13.168615, "distance_from_trend": -0.000654, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.02823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061892, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.167726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.038536, "excess_performance": -0.045936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045477, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061892, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101677, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038536, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72143, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35549356, "relative_activity": 0.599269, "balance": 0.72143, "dry_up": 0.836933, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047522, "annualized_volatility": 0.243905, "from_high_reference": -0.291255, "from_low_reference": 0.092356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.168615, "fair_value_reference": 14.02823, "structural_low": 12.047352, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.024605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009118, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.067035, "worst_return": -0.120743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.113327, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.079014, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.107289, "worst_return": -0.306502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086184, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021746, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037324, "worst_return": -0.117202, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046053, 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13.054648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.56, "volume": 78237510, "typical_volume": 61321363.6, "trend": 13.240138, "fair_value": 14.05527, "relative_strength": -13.013957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.700153, "energy": 24.865689, "activity_lines": [ 12.682667, 12.653455, 12.847252, 13.007958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.39, "volume": 52546266, "typical_volume": 61353417.95, "trend": 13.206167, "fair_value": 14.046765, "relative_strength": -13.851067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.691354, "energy": 28.336889, "activity_lines": [ 12.589333, 12.607636, 12.78967, 12.953111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.82, "volume": 32258545, "typical_volume": 59388791.2, "trend": 13.185203, "fair_value": 14.037693, "relative_strength": -8.811988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.456409, "energy": 21.324937, "activity_lines": [ 12.661333, 12.642909, 12.774107, 12.928197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.16, "volume": 35549356, "typical_volume": 59321234.35, "trend": 13.168615, "fair_value": 14.02823, "relative_strength": -10.167726, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.185094, "energy": 11.362186, "activity_lines": [ 12.813333, 12.737636, 12.792689, 12.926571 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }