{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d3b47ed-da79-4c01-9d61-6d853c2c2018", "symbol": "CGRA4", "name": "Grazziotin S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.881, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.745, "architecture_energy": 28.699, "architecture_maturity": 16.449, "architecture_confidence": 87.934, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.56, "rotation_up": 19.62, "upward_expansion": 2.96, "deceleration": 47.87, "rotation_down": 47.92, "downward_expansion": 76.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.396, 24.45, 24.477695, 24.662765 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 24.389999, "trend_reference": 24.913741, "distance_from_trend": -0.021022, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.394112, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.238951, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047268, "excess_performance": 0.009781, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075719, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836283, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12900, "relative_activity": 0.563257, "balance": 0.836283, "dry_up": 0.728086, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026838, "annualized_volatility": 0.147121, "from_high_reference": -0.099629, "from_low_reference": 0.23101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.913741, "fair_value_reference": 20.394112, "structural_low": 23.600796, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000195, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.016338, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.188502, "worst_return": -0.166027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002787, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013367, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.059407, "worst_return": -0.137934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.01013, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051547, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.091834, "worst_return": -0.106517, "sufficient": false }, { 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[ 24.550667, 24.519107, 24.648053, 24.837818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.6, "volume": 28000, "typical_volume": 29082.5, "trend": 24.953951, "fair_value": 20.226478, "relative_strength": -6.356826, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.394995, "energy": 16.708768, "activity_lines": [ 24.559334, 24.547223, 24.617321, 24.81719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.4, "volume": 15200, "typical_volume": 27617.5, "trend": 25.007868, "fair_value": 20.264537, "relative_strength": -4.618293, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.150966, "energy": 22.850381, "activity_lines": [ 24.52, 24.529636, 24.572302, 24.781451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.290001, "volume": 27400, "typical_volume": 27352.5, "trend": 24.996886, "fair_value": 20.302995, "relative_strength": -4.95914, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.239559, "energy": 27.735033, "activity_lines": [ 24.436667, 24.49829, 24.525333, 24.735137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.43, "volume": 11200, "typical_volume": 25622.5, "trend": 24.944873, "fair_value": 20.345822, "relative_strength": -6.253568, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.643193, "energy": 25.967834, "activity_lines": [ 24.414, 24.484541, 24.498888, 24.698564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.389999, "volume": 12900, "typical_volume": 22902.5, "trend": 24.913741, "fair_value": 20.394112, "relative_strength": -3.238951, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.744598, "energy": 28.698925, "activity_lines": [ 24.396, 24.45, 24.477695, 24.662765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }