{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d3bc7e4-a30a-46d6-ada4-3c1bc3848356", "symbol": "C50U", "name": "Amundi Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.408, "architecture_energy": 69.096, "architecture_maturity": 26.523, "architecture_confidence": 90.494, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 60.26, "upward_expansion": 84.46, "deceleration": 51.94, "rotation_down": 20.43, "downward_expansion": 13.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 196.146665, 194.621089, 191.326761, 188.373332 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 201.5, "trend_reference": 185.811999, "distance_from_trend": 0.084429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 149.777022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.345333, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.811172, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081357, "excess_performance": 0.028045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033338, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.345333, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055894, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048112, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.469293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4942, "relative_activity": 0.916424, "balance": 1.469293, "dry_up": 0.803169, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025497, "annualized_volatility": 0.211485, "from_high_reference": -0.002722, "from_low_reference": 0.251087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 185.811999, "fair_value_reference": 149.777022, "structural_low": 162.940002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.019499, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": 0.006346, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.099776, "worst_return": -0.080992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023152, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.027825, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.14157, "worst_return": -0.094172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060903, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.017481, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.208325, "worst_return": -0.039181, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.326839, "energy": 65.461117, "activity_lines": [ 193.24533, 191.34218, 187.302951, 185.610967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 191.300003, "volume": 2554, "typical_volume": 5624.2, "trend": 184.227999, "fair_value": 148.28433, "relative_strength": 4.571341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.421637, "energy": 52.117737, "activity_lines": [ 192.698665, 191.684362, 188.010856, 186.096859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 191.839996, "volume": 3185, "typical_volume": 5396.05, "trend": 184.681999, "fair_value": 148.733945, "relative_strength": 4.270661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.564211, "energy": 45.39726, "activity_lines": [ 192.358665, 192.012725, 188.769618, 186.587956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.059998, "volume": 6644, "typical_volume": 5506.85, "trend": 185.204666, "fair_value": 149.23433, "relative_strength": 4.627511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.110546, "energy": 44.340183, "activity_lines": [ 193.538665, 192.905089, 189.84638, 187.32202 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 201.5, "volume": 4942, "typical_volume": 5392.7, "trend": 185.811999, "fair_value": 149.777022, "relative_strength": 4.811172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.40823, "energy": 69.095974, "activity_lines": [ 196.146665, 194.621089, 191.326761, 188.373332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }