{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d412347-1d4d-45e7-b09e-44310d45d9e1", "symbol": "AMSC", "name": "American Superconductor Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.954, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.83, "architecture_energy": 53.504, "architecture_maturity": 16.681, "architecture_confidence": 80.807, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 15.21, "upward_expansion": 26.27, "deceleration": 50.14, "rotation_down": 68.64, "downward_expansion": 55.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.658333, 34.184091, 39.322214, 39.087387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.765, "trend_reference": 37.813333, "distance_from_trend": -0.133507, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.330673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.179641, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.163117, "excess_performance": -0.024337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03938, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.04922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301796, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.450325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.163117, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.146491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4590952, "relative_activity": 0.827218, "balance": 0.146491, "dry_up": 0.730355, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211142, "annualized_volatility": 0.753169, "from_high_reference": -0.535154, "from_low_reference": 0.317451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.813333, "fair_value_reference": 27.330673, "structural_low": 26.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009877, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025189, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.46384, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.4675, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.367286, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.42963, "worst_return": 0.047925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.638469, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.459775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.816, "worst_return": 0.533333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.290315, 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"2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.267471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.007914, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.312119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.228009, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.239055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073558, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.65, "volume": 13628770, "typical_volume": 8065950.55, "trend": 5.749333, "fair_value": 10.821923, "relative_strength": 48.160336, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.096669, "energy": 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"direction": -4.439354, "energy": 18.825193, "activity_lines": [ 38.283333, 41.666182, 42.937286, 40.728667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.025, "volume": 2691887, "typical_volume": 5485212.75, "trend": 37.819167, "fair_value": 26.922083, "relative_strength": -29.544687, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.517755, "energy": 32.032609, "activity_lines": [ 36.210333, 39.46, 42.192714, 40.424473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.52, "volume": 3897183, "typical_volume": 5470724.1, "trend": 37.817167, "fair_value": 27.054647, "relative_strength": -33.22391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.496497, "energy": 53.199095, "activity_lines": [ 33.768667, 37.201364, 41.207452, 39.953559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.37, "volume": 5033495, "typical_volume": 5496023.1, "trend": 37.7435, "fair_value": 27.176827, "relative_strength": -35.068505, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.577813, "energy": 59.854057, "activity_lines": [ 31.802333, 35.179818, 40.099238, 39.408581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.765, "volume": 4590952, "typical_volume": 5549871.8, "trend": 37.813333, "fair_value": 27.330673, "relative_strength": -30.179641, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.829502, "energy": 53.503803, "activity_lines": [ 31.658333, 34.184091, 39.322214, 39.087387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }