{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d4fd328-efb2-41c9-9a53-dcb33943c2f2", "symbol": "PEY", "name": "Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.534, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.68, "architecture_energy": 20.327, "architecture_maturity": 23.819, "architecture_confidence": 58.176, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.69, "rotation_up": 39.34, "upward_expansion": 25.92, "deceleration": 40.25, "rotation_down": 24.31, "downward_expansion": 50.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.153626, 24.797414, 24.910555, 25.174222 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.9, "trend_reference": 25.262835, "distance_from_trend": -0.014362, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.734528, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.487942, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.985441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011964, "excess_performance": -0.132385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042971, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.487942, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071735, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011964, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.676072, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2659600, "relative_activity": 0.848688, "balance": 0.676072, "dry_up": 1.011335, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047207, "annualized_volatility": 0.274081, "from_high_reference": -0.136645, "from_low_reference": 0.450467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.262835, "fair_value_reference": 16.734528, "structural_low": 23.447493, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022608, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004778, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.161127, "worst_return": -0.10303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.201347, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.105951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.323458, "worst_return": -0.072181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.150899, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.080624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167422, "worst_return": 0.100034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-32.681157, "energy": 51.33195, "activity_lines": [ 23.971744, 24.362343, 24.850178, 25.072722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.007563, "volume": 3481000, "typical_volume": 3550555.0, "trend": 25.024623, "fair_value": 16.53352, "relative_strength": 4.483785, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.117546, "energy": 9.877839, "activity_lines": [ 24.631267, 24.580519, 24.905733, 25.144489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.73, "volume": 3257300, "typical_volume": 3459215.0, "trend": 25.144516, "fair_value": 16.638712, "relative_strength": 3.636278, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.589286, "energy": 9.486538, "activity_lines": [ 25.085614, 24.757702, 24.940824, 25.189997 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.9, "volume": 2659600, "typical_volume": 3133780.0, "trend": 25.262835, "fair_value": 16.734528, "relative_strength": -2.985441, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.680088, "energy": 20.326804, "activity_lines": [ 25.153626, 24.797414, 24.910555, 25.174222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }