{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d56f2d2-61bc-4895-ae70-58d2e5578f52", "symbol": "IWO", "name": "ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.466, "architecture_energy": 29.552, "architecture_maturity": 57.273, "architecture_confidence": 84.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.67, "rotation_up": 33.14, "upward_expansion": 58.65, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 19.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 378.819333, 380.446956, 375.693149, 365.570548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 390.16, "trend_reference": 354.555, "distance_from_trend": 0.100422, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 287.74769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.35591, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.509008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150972, "excess_performance": 0.025347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100422, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.35591, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019619, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02509, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150972, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.804721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2311042, "relative_activity": 1.082733, "balance": 0.804721, "dry_up": 1.013536, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041717, "annualized_volatility": 0.196098, "from_high_reference": -0.016461, "from_low_reference": 0.34735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 354.555, "fair_value_reference": 287.74769, "structural_low": 299.28975, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014368, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.009795, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.044648, "worst_return": -0.082891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0681, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000798, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.136114, "worst_return": -0.210734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.121419, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.025031, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.163384, "worst_return": -0.006669, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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284.286698, "relative_strength": 4.148118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.989339, "energy": 63.012546, "activity_lines": [ 386.231691, 381.739769, 368.449892, 358.8202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 376.72, "volume": 1805983, "typical_volume": 2217900.15, "trend": 350.156188, "fair_value": 285.134748, "relative_strength": 3.440665, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.645167, "energy": 48.473523, "activity_lines": [ 383.221333, 381.55773, 370.5756, 360.636343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 370.23, "volume": 2012273, "typical_volume": 2160148.35, "trend": 351.478005, "fair_value": 285.93221, "relative_strength": 2.111257, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.388578, "energy": 33.69404, "activity_lines": [ 378.262667, 380.047303, 371.883401, 361.931428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 370.67, "volume": 2524086, "typical_volume": 2135637.55, "trend": 352.94563, "fair_value": 286.759951, "relative_strength": 0.982209, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.728005, "energy": 23.334919, "activity_lines": [ 374.704667, 378.464086, 372.993397, 363.169621 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 390.16, "volume": 2311042, "typical_volume": 2134453.15, "trend": 354.555, "fair_value": 287.74769, "relative_strength": 2.509008, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.466322, "energy": 29.551879, "activity_lines": [ 378.819333, 380.446956, 375.693149, 365.570548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }