{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d586873-9def-4c3e-9cda-8a4b6be75a94", "symbol": "OM", "name": "Osisko Metals Incorporated", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.066, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.469, "architecture_energy": 25.629, "architecture_maturity": 65.46, "architecture_confidence": 91.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.49, "rotation_up": 33.94, "upward_expansion": 56.71, "deceleration": 88.05, "rotation_down": 28.33, "downward_expansion": 20.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.722, 1.724, 1.693857, 1.605699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.92, "trend_reference": 1.467, "distance_from_trend": 0.308793, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.536923, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.575931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 63.999863, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.627119, "excess_performance": 0.506697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.308793, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.331216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.575931, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.615545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.639999, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.477077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.627119, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.736327, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7662600, "relative_activity": 0.696148, "balance": 0.736327, "dry_up": 0.802086, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110577, "annualized_volatility": 0.804741, "from_high_reference": -0.005181, "from_low_reference": 4.052632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.467, "fair_value_reference": 0.536923, "structural_low": 0.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.052089, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020563, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.47619, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.136364, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.177162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.714286, "worst_return": -0.488889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.267531, "energy": 54.928714, "activity_lines": [ 1.766, 1.729636, 1.621429, 1.499849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.78, "volume": 5642700, "typical_volume": 11637765.0, "trend": 1.344333, "fair_value": 0.500128, "relative_strength": 69.315788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.717382, "energy": 49.179157, "activity_lines": [ 1.783333, 1.744, 1.647, 1.53043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.54, "volume": 9529300, "typical_volume": 11368900.0, "trend": 1.373, "fair_value": 0.508462, "relative_strength": 44.160782, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.595715, "energy": 31.240528, "activity_lines": [ 1.707333, 1.710909, 1.64681, 1.543054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.67, "volume": 9019200, "typical_volume": 11097550.0, "trend": 1.404667, "fair_value": 0.5175, "relative_strength": 52.836771, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.717789, "energy": 26.344122, "activity_lines": [ 1.686, 1.705091, 1.659048, 1.562215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.59, "volume": 9103600, "typical_volume": 11252650.0, "trend": 1.431333, "fair_value": 0.526154, "relative_strength": 43.430723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.46392, "energy": 17.815091, "activity_lines": [ 1.644667, 1.684182, 1.661619, 1.574172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.92, "volume": 7662600, "typical_volume": 11007145.0, "trend": 1.467, "fair_value": 0.536923, "relative_strength": 63.999863, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.468516, "energy": 25.62886, "activity_lines": [ 1.722, 1.724, 1.693857, 1.605699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }