{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d5b5b36-f648-4188-8384-68c4022881a0", "symbol": "RCN", "name": "Redcentric plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.112, "architecture_energy": 72.35, "architecture_maturity": 55.628, "architecture_confidence": 82.804, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.46, "rotation_up": 13.73, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 31.66, "rotation_down": 72.0, "downward_expansion": 86.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.966667, 114.754545, 119.940476, 120.356989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 98.5, "trend_reference": 120.541667, "distance_from_trend": -0.182855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 123.454333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.549907, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192623, "excess_performance": -0.243858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202134, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192623, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.026398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 633263, "relative_activity": 0.204432, "balance": 0.026398, "dry_up": 4.690224, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128469, "annualized_volatility": 0.312029, "from_high_reference": -0.384375, "from_low_reference": 0.036842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120.541667, "fair_value_reference": 123.454333, "structural_low": 95.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009158, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.019297, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.117878, "worst_return": -0.044445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013095, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066798, "worst_return": -0.046296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006835, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125163, "worst_return": -0.070371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069276, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017682, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108871, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02834, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.35711, "energy": 21.402078, "activity_lines": [ 126.466667, 126.854545, 123.633333, 122.373118 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 127.5, "volume": 284750, "typical_volume": 275310.75, "trend": 121.408333, "fair_value": 123.647551, "relative_strength": -3.079674, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.59035, "energy": 17.423047, "activity_lines": [ 126.433333, 127.227273, 124.179762, 122.774731 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 125.0, "volume": 247624, "typical_volume": 278076.6, "trend": 121.5, "fair_value": 123.669732, "relative_strength": -5.959354, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.450617, "energy": 15.773491, "activity_lines": [ 125.866667, 126.972727, 124.45, 123.006452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 125.0, "volume": 234449, "typical_volume": 268300.55, "trend": 121.666667, "fair_value": 123.684349, "relative_strength": -7.133547, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.630636, "energy": 15.264571, "activity_lines": [ 125.633333, 126.563636, 124.705952, 123.232258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 128.0, "volume": 156009, "typical_volume": 258302.3, "trend": 121.933333, "fair_value": 123.710633, "relative_strength": -3.002576, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.172607, "energy": 18.229774, "activity_lines": [ 126.4, 126.609091, 125.222619, 123.64086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 128.0, "volume": 286187, "typical_volume": 256969.45, "trend": 122.233333, "fair_value": 123.752046, "relative_strength": -3.697444, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.652957, "energy": 21.813568, "activity_lines": [ 126.966667, 126.709091, 125.694048, 124.032258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 112.0, "volume": 56422606, "typical_volume": 3058273.45, "trend": 121.975, "fair_value": 123.702996, "relative_strength": -16.402459, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.457535, "energy": 5.674981, "activity_lines": [ 122.066667, 123.954545, 124.604762, 123.372043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 98.0, "volume": 773067, "typical_volume": 3084648.55, "trend": 121.258333, "fair_value": 123.579331, "relative_strength": -27.217634, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.343923, "energy": 45.876123, "activity_lines": [ 113.533333, 119.018182, 122.205952, 121.825269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.5, "volume": 633263, "typical_volume": 3097673.1, "trend": 120.541667, "fair_value": 123.454333, "relative_strength": -26.549907, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.111873, "energy": 72.350115, "activity_lines": [ 106.966667, 114.754545, 119.940476, 120.356989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }