{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d6f9c70-eb61-45d2-a792-d4b1e34a08c7", "symbol": "IMPP", "name": "Imperial Petroleum Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.83, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.805, "architecture_energy": 20.383, "architecture_maturity": 57.758, "architecture_confidence": 79.925, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.85, "rotation_up": 31.49, "upward_expansion": 56.58, "deceleration": 87.05, "rotation_down": 24.79, "downward_expansion": 17.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.697, 4.715868, 4.633535, 4.465767 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.61, "trend_reference": 4.180533, "distance_from_trend": 0.10273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.147995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.464424, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.816296, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.539525, "excess_performance": 0.352071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10273, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051577, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.464424, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008163, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.539525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1552205, "relative_activity": 0.704186, "balance": 0.665772, "dry_up": 0.494212, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101475, "annualized_volatility": 0.450734, "from_high_reference": -0.219693, "from_low_reference": 0.767799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.180533, "fair_value_reference": 3.147995, "structural_low": 3.120322, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022432, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.004226, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.351275, "worst_return": -0.206823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059347, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041049, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.310263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170808, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.246291, "worst_return": -0.429594, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.658755, 4.462428, 4.242051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.965, "volume": 1156290, "typical_volume": 2981447.1, "trend": 4.004248, "fair_value": 3.084811, "relative_strength": 8.770632, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.871657, "energy": 43.87645, "activity_lines": [ 4.79736, 4.722125, 4.527386, 4.306552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.68, "volume": 789122, "typical_volume": 2893937.4, "trend": 4.045446, "fair_value": 3.099133, "relative_strength": 6.46657, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.337453, "energy": 39.491055, "activity_lines": [ 4.777148, 4.723517, 4.558558, 4.350149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.76, "volume": 1060136, "typical_volume": 2508696.15, "trend": 4.092609, "fair_value": 3.114082, "relative_strength": 9.393313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.328286, "energy": 35.62118, "activity_lines": [ 4.786333, 4.736276, 4.593263, 4.396249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.7, "volume": 956013, "typical_volume": 2280900.4, "trend": 4.139869, "fair_value": 3.127839, "relative_strength": 6.79658, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.175273, "energy": 31.60112, "activity_lines": [ 4.751333, 4.730548, 4.618984, 4.435436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.61, "volume": 1552205, "typical_volume": 2204254.75, "trend": 4.180533, "fair_value": 3.147995, "relative_strength": -0.816296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.804982, "energy": 20.383345, "activity_lines": [ 4.697, 4.715868, 4.633535, 4.465767 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }