{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d7184c6-1898-4b36-bd02-bc749959e8e8", "symbol": "8450", "name": "Pili International Multimedia Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.76, "architecture_energy": 36.167, "architecture_maturity": 42.262, "architecture_confidence": 90.154, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.13, "rotation_up": 21.77, "upward_expansion": 4.26, "deceleration": 54.01, "rotation_down": 49.97, "downward_expansion": 77.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.05, 15.157273, 15.47, 15.848817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.2, "trend_reference": 16.288333, "distance_from_trend": -0.066817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.01891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276842, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.636628, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105882, "excess_performance": -0.547254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038091, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000883, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.489289, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122964, "relative_activity": 0.526513, "balance": 1.489289, "dry_up": 0.60259, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067308, "annualized_volatility": 0.147437, "from_high_reference": -0.256724, "from_low_reference": 0.078014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.288333, "fair_value_reference": 21.01891, "structural_low": 14.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.028093, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.267057, "worst_return": -0.108527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.017143, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.120495, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.13879, "worst_return": -0.175439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.075581, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.213072, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": -0.008897, "worst_return": -0.193133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-37.414761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.008267, "energy": 48.730429, "activity_lines": [ 15.18, 15.379091, 15.782857, 16.120323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.75, "volume": 232051, "typical_volume": 273140.9, "trend": 16.413333, "fair_value": 21.144872, "relative_strength": -36.829084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.144036, "energy": 52.153258, "activity_lines": [ 15.02, 15.239091, 15.642381, 16.007634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.1, "volume": 89577, "typical_volume": 251730.05, "trend": 16.348333, "fair_value": 21.081731, "relative_strength": -35.873878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.476454, "energy": 45.40391, "activity_lines": [ 15.006667, 15.185455, 15.546429, 15.922903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.2, "volume": 122964, "typical_volume": 233544.2, "trend": 16.288333, "fair_value": 21.01891, "relative_strength": -36.636628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.760472, "energy": 36.166609, "activity_lines": [ 15.05, 15.157273, 15.47, 15.848817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }