{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d7764a9-621a-4235-92b1-ea3b51a8fee1", "symbol": "MULC", "name": "Manulife Multifactor U.S. Large Cap Index ETF (Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.861, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.606, "architecture_energy": 68.577, "architecture_maturity": 76.841, "architecture_confidence": 75.86, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 56.91, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 67.67, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.041334, 64.802989, 64.097767, 62.942135 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 66.150002, "trend_reference": 61.635171, "distance_from_trend": 0.073251, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.060379, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27064, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.852272, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119858, "excess_performance": -0.000563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073251, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034578, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021586, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018523, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012225, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.592593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.592593, "dry_up": 0.485934, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013834, "annualized_volatility": 0.110483, "from_high_reference": -0.006458, "from_low_reference": 0.204187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.635171, "fair_value_reference": 52.060379, "structural_low": 55.450001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.011692, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.010778, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.050654, "worst_return": -0.05485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032492, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012508, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.079376, "worst_return": -0.083502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075763, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.000563, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.119858, "worst_return": -0.165773, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.264132, "energy": 86.889972, "activity_lines": [ 64.751001, 64.395277, 63.016675, 61.997975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.32, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 2285.0, "trend": 61.063305, "fair_value": 51.607377, "relative_strength": -2.12817, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.469795, "energy": 78.553193, "activity_lines": [ 64.658528, 64.443506, 63.277222, 62.220628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.029999, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 2075.0, "trend": 61.223171, "fair_value": 51.749155, "relative_strength": -2.647828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.117082, "energy": 61.771545, "activity_lines": [ 64.464667, 64.406026, 63.48934, 62.412027 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.720001, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 2035.0, "trend": 61.430171, "fair_value": 51.899118, "relative_strength": -0.998104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.284859, "energy": 61.220623, "activity_lines": [ 64.537334, 64.483678, 63.742363, 62.637629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.150002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1955.0, "trend": 61.635171, "fair_value": 52.060379, "relative_strength": -1.852272, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.60564, "energy": 68.57668, "activity_lines": [ 65.041334, 64.802989, 64.097767, 62.942135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }