{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d836748-8f6c-4e39-8026-6cf1c099290a", "symbol": "AUEM", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.897, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.4, "architecture_energy": 17.678, "architecture_maturity": 64.868, "architecture_confidence": 79.905, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.56, "rotation_up": 16.54, "upward_expansion": 45.45, "deceleration": 87.9, "rotation_down": 41.95, "downward_expansion": 30.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.548867, 8.676009, 8.694088, 8.516243 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.689, "trend_reference": 8.288233, "distance_from_trend": 0.048354, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.136075, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.416052, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.30441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105696, "excess_performance": 0.052384, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048354, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.416052, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053044, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194972, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.823172, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 398779, "relative_activity": 0.641368, "balance": 1.823172, "dry_up": 0.967956, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045501, "annualized_volatility": 0.259926, "from_high_reference": -0.065397, "from_low_reference": 0.361059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.288233, "fair_value_reference": 6.136075, "structural_low": 7.1429, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004662, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002576, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.149955, "worst_return": -0.050357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059235, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.04975, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22417, "worst_return": 0.007666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041303, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090206, "worst_return": 0.017846, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.136446, 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"2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005489, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028001, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137263, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"fair_value": 6.088917, "relative_strength": 7.422733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.535022, "energy": 21.728879, "activity_lines": [ 8.608133, 8.762578, 8.670282, 8.47176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.461, "volume": 911704, "typical_volume": 688548.85, "trend": 8.248553, "fair_value": 6.111262, "relative_strength": 5.378035, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.106195, "energy": 20.579333, "activity_lines": [ 8.525733, 8.696196, 8.673626, 8.487827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.689, "volume": 398779, "typical_volume": 621763.55, "trend": 8.288233, "fair_value": 6.136075, "relative_strength": 5.30441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.40023, "energy": 17.677501, "activity_lines": [ 8.548867, 8.676009, 8.694088, 8.516243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }