{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d85450c-3080-47aa-8fef-4ee4347ce7cd", "symbol": "MYRG", "name": "MYR Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.53, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -12.6, "architecture_energy": 32.331, "architecture_maturity": 47.736, "architecture_confidence": 86.1, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.71, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 44.17, "deceleration": 84.84, "rotation_down": 51.76, "downward_expansion": 38.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 357.323333, 390.189091, 407.586048, 385.691183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 337.42, "trend_reference": 351.376333, "distance_from_trend": -0.039719, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.639968, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.760697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.739483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25547, "excess_performance": 0.068016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039719, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218605, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.760697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.847217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037395, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.571316, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25547, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.80876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1334135, "relative_activity": 0.923809, "balance": 0.80876, "dry_up": 1.089819, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143213, "annualized_volatility": 0.501574, "from_high_reference": -0.329938, "from_low_reference": 0.967349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 351.376333, "fair_value_reference": 191.639968, "structural_low": 251.6275, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003279, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005156, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.240648, "worst_return": -0.170006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071762, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.747724, "worst_return": -0.223531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.233277, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.101608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.441555, "worst_return": -0.143238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.190064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.694896, "worst_return": -0.292433, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.108728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113884, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.356757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.321056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044648, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.317602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.138157, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 141.84, "volume": 381088, "typical_volume": 529025.6, "trend": 127.677667, "fair_value": 92.072244, "relative_strength": 10.163381, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"fair_value": 186.104904, "relative_strength": 32.489895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.652266, "energy": 39.385464, "activity_lines": [ 442.034, 447.602364, 416.975762, 380.67471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 391.51, "volume": 1176379, "typical_volume": 1415542.95, "trend": 338.854667, "fair_value": 187.657788, "relative_strength": 27.827351, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.52562, "energy": 25.211613, "activity_lines": [ 423.396, 436.966727, 418.399381, 384.438194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 379.17, "volume": 1341615, "typical_volume": 1400858.55, "trend": 343.992, "fair_value": 189.162019, "relative_strength": 24.722035, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.95696, "energy": 23.168682, "activity_lines": [ 404.258667, 424.930182, 418.068952, 387.039183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 333.22, "volume": 2443395, "typical_volume": 1446542.9, "trend": 347.542, "fair_value": 190.392019, "relative_strength": 8.330114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.823395, "energy": 25.998897, "activity_lines": [ 375.266667, 406.144364, 412.799143, 386.344215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 337.42, "volume": 1334135, "typical_volume": 1444167.4, "trend": 351.376333, "fair_value": 191.639968, "relative_strength": 3.739483, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.600025, "energy": 32.330785, "activity_lines": [ 357.323333, 390.189091, 407.586048, 385.691183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }