{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d888247-fa65-43d7-98dc-6a2e458a3fef", "symbol": "PVRINOX", "name": "PVR INOX Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.319, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.651, "architecture_energy": 86.891, "architecture_maturity": 14.151, "architecture_confidence": 74.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.89, "rotation_up": 86.49, "upward_expansion": 96.52, "deceleration": 39.01, "rotation_down": 8.16, "downward_expansion": 18.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1099.653316, 1052.9609, 1023.133332, 1012.6014 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1156.0, "trend_reference": 1003.568339, "distance_from_trend": 0.15189, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1257.931408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081031, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.628241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.148649, "excess_performance": 0.192358, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.15189, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014186, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089791, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.787861, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1656907, "relative_activity": 1.130275, "balance": 1.787861, "dry_up": 1.79161, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048, "annualized_volatility": 0.251611, "from_high_reference": -0.074978, "from_low_reference": 0.27397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1003.568339, "fair_value_reference": 1257.931408, "structural_low": 907.400024, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.053286, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.043247, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.115776, "worst_return": -0.170864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055171, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097166, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": -0.006474, "worst_return": -0.262331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083937, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.11213, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.197962, "worst_return": -0.321189, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083358, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": 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993.703123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1130.599976, "volume": 3525171, "typical_volume": 1511390.55, "trend": 998.511672, "fair_value": 1261.02628, "relative_strength": 10.167743, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.875705, "energy": 77.954665, "activity_lines": [ 1060.793311, 1024.810899, 1007.804999, 1002.440863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1156.0, "volume": 1656907, "typical_volume": 1465932.5, "trend": 1003.568339, "fair_value": 1257.931408, "relative_strength": 11.628241, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.650888, "energy": 86.890995, "activity_lines": [ 1099.653316, 1052.9609, 1023.133332, 1012.6014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }