{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d8dc704-0962-4d06-bc96-a04a43d08b32", "symbol": "RANASUG", "name": "Rana Sugars Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.64, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.618, "architecture_energy": 35.193, "architecture_maturity": 8.063, "architecture_confidence": 65.485, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.16, "rotation_up": 20.75, "upward_expansion": 23.79, "deceleration": 49.76, "rotation_down": 58.49, "downward_expansion": 51.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.06, 12.197273, 12.523476, 12.45329 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.53, "trend_reference": 12.215, "distance_from_trend": 0.025788, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.205256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.311737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.235632, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.129847, "excess_performance": 0.173556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025788, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.311737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.129847, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1849331, "relative_activity": 1.511355, "balance": 0.394828, "dry_up": 0.728136, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056541, "annualized_volatility": 0.264384, "from_high_reference": -0.201402, "from_low_reference": 0.227228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.215, "fair_value_reference": 18.205256, "structural_low": 10.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.022541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026365, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.022556, "worst_return": -0.091651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.084288, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12158, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.06203, "worst_return": -0.13303, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.18428, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.253422, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104478, "worst_return": -0.339408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.24228, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014033, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05466, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.25, "volume": 8071095, "typical_volume": 5051554.6, "trend": 23.175, "fair_value": 21.498718, "relative_strength": -3.748958, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.430189, "energy": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 11.87, "volume": 697893, "typical_volume": 1341306.45, "trend": 12.242667, "fair_value": 18.427885, "relative_strength": -7.389678, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.4408, "energy": 30.269093, "activity_lines": [ 12.198667, 12.439455, 12.693286, 12.488258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.78, "volume": 549597, "typical_volume": 1266413.4, "trend": 12.221, "fair_value": 18.353718, "relative_strength": -5.551383, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.762227, "energy": 47.198879, "activity_lines": [ 11.996667, 12.290909, 12.613333, 12.458409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.81, "volume": 467038, "typical_volume": 1196420.7, "trend": 12.198333, "fair_value": 18.278782, "relative_strength": -7.379968, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.338141, "energy": 53.798326, "activity_lines": [ 11.874, 12.17, 12.534381, 12.431892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.53, "volume": 1849331, "typical_volume": 1223624.8, "trend": 12.215, "fair_value": 18.205256, "relative_strength": -2.235632, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.618333, "energy": 35.192847, "activity_lines": [ 12.06, 12.197273, 12.523476, 12.45329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }