{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d9843ae-b82d-4c29-aae6-a92f24d13e8b", "symbol": "REVB", "name": "Revolution Beauty Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.429, "architecture_energy": 26.469, "architecture_maturity": 42.969, "architecture_confidence": 74.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.66, "rotation_up": 33.16, "upward_expansion": 59.78, "deceleration": 70.61, "rotation_down": 23.84, "downward_expansion": 14.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.046643, 0.047513, 0.044572, 0.042135 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.04425, "trend_reference": 0.04011, "distance_from_trend": 0.103216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.142154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.688718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.77559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134615, "excess_performance": 0.08338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180979, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.688718, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0847, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137756, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.264561, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.151789, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4618030, "relative_activity": 0.847959, "balance": 1.151789, "dry_up": 1.96733, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167979, "annualized_volatility": 0.607957, "from_high_reference": -0.349265, "from_low_reference": 1.011364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.04011, "fair_value_reference": 0.142154, "structural_low": 0.026, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013761, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.051982, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.728947, "worst_return": -0.218868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007071, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038665, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.394737, "worst_return": -0.308642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.260345, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.353324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.376316, "worst_return": -0.318519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.27013, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.734807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147399, "active": false 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0.043717, 0.041451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0454, "volume": 5967560, "typical_volume": 5306298.5, "trend": 0.039795, "fair_value": 0.143569, "relative_strength": 17.095347, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.774386, "energy": 31.453466, "activity_lines": [ 0.04796, 0.048031, 0.044231, 0.041847 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04425, "volume": 4618030, "typical_volume": 5446054.9, "trend": 0.04011, "fair_value": 0.142154, "relative_strength": 13.77559, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.42943, "energy": 26.469305, "activity_lines": [ 0.046643, 0.047513, 0.044572, 0.042135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }