{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d9995ae-5ae7-4e85-a7b0-4c5d50a82345", "symbol": "2324", "name": "Compal Electronics, Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.295, "architecture_energy": 50.805, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.532, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.37, "rotation_up": 61.19, "upward_expansion": 80.24, "deceleration": 53.46, "rotation_down": 17.31, "downward_expansion": 6.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.706667, 37.534545, 36.067619, 34.598484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 43.200001, "trend_reference": 32.978116, "distance_from_trend": 0.30996, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.294032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.380455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.092356, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.458083, "excess_performance": 0.016711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.30996, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087885, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.380455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.438015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.329536, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.458083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.049719, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 835426127, "relative_activity": 2.066384, "balance": 3.049719, "dry_up": 0.974025, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107906, "annualized_volatility": 0.497416, "from_high_reference": -0.095288, "from_low_reference": 0.676523 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.978116, "fair_value_reference": 31.294032, "structural_low": 26.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.015151, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": 0.001615, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.175984, "worst_return": -0.233102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.018505, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.189555, "worst_return": -0.22888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04173, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.375659, "worst_return": -0.238158, "sufficient": true }, 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"typical_volume": 404293672.65, "trend": 32.978116, "fair_value": 31.294032, "relative_strength": -1.092356, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.294577, "energy": 50.805293, "activity_lines": [ 38.706667, 37.534545, 36.067619, 34.598484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }