{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d9b870a-0af1-4f5c-a7d1-13f3b27229b1", "symbol": "DXCO3", "name": "Dexco S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.076, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.385, "architecture_energy": 10.989, "architecture_maturity": 16.924, "architecture_confidence": 94.813, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.92, "rotation_up": 38.24, "upward_expansion": 34.01, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 16.53, "downward_expansion": 40.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.113333, 5.036909, 5.025667, 5.049892 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.22, "trend_reference": 5.14, "distance_from_trend": 0.015564, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.770762, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.525757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06619, "excess_performance": -0.009141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015564, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062798, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028687, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.92835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10915400, "relative_activity": 1.249088, "balance": 0.92835, "dry_up": 0.940103, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060713, "annualized_volatility": 0.445178, "from_high_reference": -0.160772, "from_low_reference": 0.17871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.14, "fair_value_reference": 5.770762, "structural_low": 4.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.061538, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.032855, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.144531, "worst_return": -0.164373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.095518, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.121832, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.059859, "worst_return": -0.326222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.13411, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.181999, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.176871, "worst_return": -0.356504, "sufficient": true }, { 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9245365.0, "trend": 5.139667, "fair_value": 5.804895, "relative_strength": -6.357966, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.766496, "energy": 16.482603, "activity_lines": [ 5.018, 4.939818, 4.997143, 5.047441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.1, "volume": 7144700, "typical_volume": 8821370.0, "trend": 5.142333, "fair_value": 5.786348, "relative_strength": -6.257149, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.66309, "energy": 13.964818, "activity_lines": [ 5.05, 4.979818, 5.006762, 5.044882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.22, "volume": 10915400, "typical_volume": 8738695.0, "trend": 5.14, "fair_value": 5.770762, "relative_strength": -0.525757, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.384894, "energy": 10.989155, "activity_lines": [ 5.113333, 5.036909, 5.025667, 5.049892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }