{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d9bdb80-9e33-43c8-bced-6b5ec23c4658", "symbol": "MMD", "name": "MainStay MacKay DefinedTerm Municipal Opportunities Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 81.857, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.501, "architecture_energy": 10.419, "architecture_maturity": 11.847, "architecture_confidence": 65.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.64, "rotation_up": 19.21, "upward_expansion": 33.32, "deceleration": 69.15, "rotation_down": 50.23, "downward_expansion": 23.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.042891, 15.145003, 15.133914, 15.094901 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.01, "trend_reference": 15.071247, "distance_from_trend": -0.004064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.566728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.799692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014857, "excess_performance": -0.140482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014766, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0257, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.451428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 339411, "relative_activity": 1.258865, "balance": 1.451428, "dry_up": 0.802468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022397, "annualized_volatility": 0.09697, "from_high_reference": -0.033814, "from_low_reference": 0.086838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.071247, "fair_value_reference": 14.566728, "structural_low": 14.260067, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.012291, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01389, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.127186, "worst_return": -0.117943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.042419, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.066206, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.096992, "worst_return": -0.165451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014405, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.096133, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.056227, 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"Developing", "return": -0.055117, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063844, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.969903, "energy": 40.628426, "activity_lines": [ 15.290284, 15.248615, 15.123609, 15.086353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.31, "volume": 162749, "typical_volume": 274955.7, "trend": 15.032555, "fair_value": 14.558955, "relative_strength": -4.935348, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.13334, "energy": 35.092427, "activity_lines": [ 15.296481, 15.268249, 15.148615, 15.105975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.05, "volume": 175505, "typical_volume": 265487.15, "trend": 15.053513, "fair_value": 14.561909, "relative_strength": -5.83829, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.614844, "energy": 16.314092, "activity_lines": [ 15.210443, 15.237807, 15.14895, 15.107101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.92, "volume": 187770, "typical_volume": 265755.65, "trend": 15.06559, "fair_value": 14.563472, "relative_strength": -7.433428, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.326922, "energy": 13.299722, "activity_lines": [ 15.094597, 15.182543, 15.137015, 15.098487 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.01, "volume": 339411, "typical_volume": 269616.7, "trend": 15.071247, "fair_value": 14.566728, "relative_strength": -9.799692, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.500979, "energy": 10.419099, "activity_lines": [ 15.042891, 15.145003, 15.133914, 15.094901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }