{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7d9f10d8-7a10-4186-91a0-9ad296f63744", "symbol": "CRNC", "name": "Cerence\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.983, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.801, "architecture_energy": 22.797, "architecture_maturity": 9.883, "architecture_confidence": 51.941, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.11, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 14.72, "deceleration": 63.89, "rotation_down": 57.07, "downward_expansion": 39.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.858, 9.437636, 9.803, 9.444237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.145, "trend_reference": 9.246, "distance_from_trend": -0.010924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.606699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.189281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.176963, "excess_performance": -0.010491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04619, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201893, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.096073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3572422, "relative_activity": 0.832766, "balance": 1.096073, "dry_up": 0.866361, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.206994, "annualized_volatility": 0.654563, "from_high_reference": -0.334328, "from_low_reference": 0.563248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.246, "fair_value_reference": 10.606699, "structural_low": 5.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.05267, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.06094, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.406863, "worst_return": -0.301853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053308, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.083934, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 3.071895, "worst_return": -0.587317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.120925, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.291065, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 2.153595, "worst_return": -0.845838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022917, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.510229, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.351446, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.223979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.313354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", 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8.445, "volume": 4547187, "typical_volume": 4302835.05, "trend": 9.454167, "fair_value": 10.828397, "relative_strength": -22.655886, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.850726, "energy": 14.052328, "activity_lines": [ 9.345667, 9.988545, 9.900095, 9.517914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.52, "volume": 3217772, "typical_volume": 4277987.85, "trend": 9.352833, "fair_value": 10.715513, "relative_strength": -22.173487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.258072, "energy": 22.301882, "activity_lines": [ 8.928, 9.633909, 9.825357, 9.457645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.145, "volume": 3572422, "typical_volume": 4289826.35, "trend": 9.246, "fair_value": 10.606699, "relative_strength": -20.189281, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.801335, "energy": 22.797015, "activity_lines": [ 8.858, 9.437636, 9.803, 9.444237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }