{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7da2d701-8816-4b3c-9bc4-38b0941186ed", "symbol": "TECB", "name": "ISHARES TRUST ISHARES US TECH BREAKTHROUGH MULTISECTR", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.33, "architecture_energy": 49.364, "architecture_maturity": 76.772, "architecture_confidence": 69.394, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.09, "rotation_up": 45.54, "upward_expansion": 78.52, "deceleration": 70.71, "rotation_down": 28.87, "downward_expansion": 7.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.237193, 70.960701, 69.771594, 67.176476 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 74.05, "trend_reference": 64.128746, "distance_from_trend": 0.154708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.00273, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.734827, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.279687, "excess_performance": 0.154062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.154708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053014, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027621, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057348, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019102, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.279687, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.395711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43280, "relative_activity": 0.649877, "balance": 2.395711, "dry_up": 0.68049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039767, "annualized_volatility": 0.225729, "from_high_reference": -0.006174, "from_low_reference": 0.389561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.128746, "fair_value_reference": 53.00273, "structural_low": 53.290199, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.018901, "positive_rate": 0.694444, "directional_follow_through": 0.694444, "median_excess_return": -0.001601, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.090742, "worst_return": -0.108597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.055964, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.003325, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.170756, "worst_return": -0.174103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056901, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.02216, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.254281, "worst_return": -0.02407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.398627, "energy": 52.50356, "activity_lines": [ 70.963307, 70.817251, 68.272196, 65.734796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.4777, "volume": 32097, "typical_volume": 69412.85, "trend": 63.404072, "fair_value": 52.55528, "relative_strength": 2.472736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.007757, "energy": 42.750245, "activity_lines": [ 70.141713, 70.429753, 68.599502, 66.076585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.1306, "volume": 43139, "typical_volume": 67150.6, "trend": 63.728215, "fair_value": 52.764475, "relative_strength": 3.76169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.901951, "energy": 35.927363, "activity_lines": [ 70.06124, 70.335947, 69.031526, 66.510555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.05, "volume": 43280, "typical_volume": 66597.25, "trend": 64.128746, "fair_value": 53.00273, "relative_strength": 5.734827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.329559, "energy": 49.364122, "activity_lines": [ 71.237193, 70.960701, 69.771594, 67.176476 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }