{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7db275f5-f9fe-448c-9c4a-c9fea0114bbe", "symbol": "ALNRG", "name": "SA Energisme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.678, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.944, "architecture_energy": 75.178, "architecture_maturity": 24.715, "architecture_confidence": 78.569, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.92, "rotation_up": 10.65, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 75.45, "downward_expansion": 92.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00444, 0.004618, 0.004896, 0.005009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0042, "trend_reference": 0.005147, "distance_from_trend": -0.183938, "trend_direction": "Stable", "fair_value": 0.006914, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392546, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.258652, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.353311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183938, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392546, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315509, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.054737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8969242, "relative_activity": 0.343938, "balance": 2.054737, "dry_up": 0.216146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106227, "annualized_volatility": 0.369965, "from_high_reference": -0.416667, "from_low_reference": 0.826087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.005147, "fair_value_reference": 0.006914, "structural_low": 0.0042, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.104, "positive_rate": 0.292683, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.12712, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.865672, "worst_return": -0.491379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.25237, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.226809, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.04, "worst_return": -0.764912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.453013, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.552382, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.612903, "worst_return": -0.902073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.005093, 0.005215, 0.00524, 0.00527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.0048, "volume": 988823, "typical_volume": 29746204.35, "trend": 0.00526, "fair_value": 0.008054, "relative_strength": -1.764022, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.526868, "energy": 43.590519, "activity_lines": [ 0.00496, 0.005116, 0.005194, 0.00524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0048, "volume": 9376940, "typical_volume": 28763706.05, "trend": 0.005263, "fair_value": 0.007803, "relative_strength": 0.268086, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.715982, "energy": 49.233066, "activity_lines": [ 0.00488, 0.005036, 0.005154, 0.00521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0046, "volume": 1573248, "typical_volume": 27673783.25, "trend": 0.005247, "fair_value": 0.007513, "relative_strength": -3.790601, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.600234, "energy": 59.315978, "activity_lines": [ 0.00476, 0.004938, 0.0051, 0.005167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0044, "volume": 7689427, "typical_volume": 26529434.85, "trend": 0.005223, "fair_value": 0.007258, "relative_strength": -8.072897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.713351, "energy": 69.894433, "activity_lines": [ 0.004613, 0.004818, 0.005029, 0.005113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0046, "volume": 4314758, "typical_volume": 25908468.95, "trend": 0.005187, "fair_value": 0.007084, "relative_strength": -5.225661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.853306, "energy": 63.853407, "activity_lines": [ 0.004587, 0.004749, 0.00498, 0.005072 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0042, "volume": 8969242, "typical_volume": 26078048.25, "trend": 0.005147, "fair_value": 0.006914, "relative_strength": -15.258652, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.943625, "energy": 75.178216, "activity_lines": [ 0.00444, 0.004618, 0.004896, 0.005009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }