{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7db47252-71a5-48dd-9322-6d5aacf7ce7c", "symbol": "QPX", "name": "ADVISORSHARES TRUST ADVISORSHARES Q DYNAMIC GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.242, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.072, "architecture_energy": 30.956, "architecture_maturity": 45.579, "architecture_confidence": 81.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.57, "rotation_up": 34.48, "upward_expansion": 63.33, "deceleration": 93.12, "rotation_down": 30.76, "downward_expansion": 14.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.041393, 48.028176, 47.815131, 47.054578 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 49.5672, "trend_reference": 46.269657, "distance_from_trend": 0.071268, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.283175, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329479, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.521097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.091596, "excess_performance": -0.034029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02851, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022521, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5184, "relative_activity": 0.398496, "balance": 0.980872, "dry_up": 1.159379, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029658, "annualized_volatility": 0.16575, "from_high_reference": -0.002672, "from_low_reference": 0.257409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.269657, "fair_value_reference": 37.283175, "structural_low": 41.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023353, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.001421, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.087147, "worst_return": -0.082949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073508, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.007205, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.127461, "worst_return": -0.095079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.124061, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017935, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128515, "worst_return": 0.087667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097597, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.161987, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"trend": 46.014413, "fair_value": 36.918629, "relative_strength": -1.98006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.080563, "energy": 30.277466, "activity_lines": [ 48.060853, 48.169002, 47.425728, 46.711811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.5998, "volume": 9568, "typical_volume": 15425.7, "trend": 46.051943, "fair_value": 37.028932, "relative_strength": -3.100544, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.21409, "energy": 19.534755, "activity_lines": [ 47.529053, 47.880835, 47.451644, 46.749578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.3553, "volume": 5390, "typical_volume": 13376.4, "trend": 46.143057, "fair_value": 37.148628, "relative_strength": -2.596087, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.968802, "energy": 18.269137, "activity_lines": [ 47.403253, 47.746822, 47.537737, 46.833665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.5672, "volume": 5184, "typical_volume": 13008.9, "trend": 46.269657, "fair_value": 37.283175, "relative_strength": -1.521097, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.072292, "energy": 30.956355, "activity_lines": [ 48.041393, 48.028176, 47.815131, 47.054578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }