{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7db7f2b7-d865-49c7-ac7d-c549062fb777", "symbol": "LOV", "name": "Lovisa Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.387, "architecture_energy": 29.868, "architecture_maturity": 18.573, "architecture_confidence": 44.123, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.28, "rotation_up": 56.97, "upward_expansion": 37.21, "deceleration": 29.45, "rotation_down": 22.03, "downward_expansion": 25.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.166667, 23.461091, 23.053524, 23.095233 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.1, "trend_reference": 23.936571, "distance_from_trend": 0.132159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.159939, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002207, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.953469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110153, "excess_performance": -0.173859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132159, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096583, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002207, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148527, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110153, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.93643, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1849313, "relative_activity": 1.411879, "balance": 0.93643, "dry_up": 1.171374, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082472, "annualized_volatility": 0.530403, "from_high_reference": -0.359952, "from_low_reference": 0.404145 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.936571, "fair_value_reference": 27.159939, "structural_low": 19.299999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052771, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.066221, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.173492, "worst_return": -0.121459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.06398, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061922, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.560272, "worst_return": -0.242056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.083938, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.077288, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.680593, "worst_return": -0.135809, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065314, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052726, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", 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"energy": 9.362279, "activity_lines": [ 22.967333, 22.688727, 22.645857, 23.154747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.66, "volume": 1469386, "typical_volume": 1387085.6, "trend": 24.139411, "fair_value": 27.079373, "relative_strength": -27.594499, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.163866, "energy": 31.455698, "activity_lines": [ 22.187333, 22.355091, 22.476381, 22.9121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.860001, "volume": 1976811, "typical_volume": 1343130.95, "trend": 23.98204, "fair_value": 27.110118, "relative_strength": -17.73721, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.350488, "energy": 4.58792, "activity_lines": [ 22.657334, 22.631455, 22.617857, 22.894074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.1, "volume": 1849313, "typical_volume": 1309824.2, "trend": 23.936571, "fair_value": 27.159939, "relative_strength": -8.953469, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.386741, "energy": 29.867521, "activity_lines": [ 24.166667, 23.461091, 23.053524, 23.095233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }