{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dbee89a-f7d7-43c6-bb58-2070ea3f47d9", "symbol": "H2UB34", "name": "HubSpot, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.641, "architecture_energy": 17.223, "architecture_maturity": 36.973, "architecture_confidence": 53.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.8, "rotation_up": 35.52, "upward_expansion": 30.07, "deceleration": 49.82, "rotation_down": 20.11, "downward_expansion": 43.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.143334, 21.155273, 21.032143, 21.974473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.040001, "trend_reference": 23.743, "distance_from_trend": -0.113844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.136987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.604042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.190422, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137351, "excess_performance": -0.080303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.604042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.411904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.22372, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1415, "relative_activity": 1.049976, "balance": 0.22372, "dry_up": 0.299039, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128949, "annualized_volatility": 0.9173, "from_high_reference": -0.617594, "from_low_reference": 0.223256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.743, "fair_value_reference": 53.136987, "structural_low": 17.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033827, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097374, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036877, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.31359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011129, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055518, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.645647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 51.049999, "volume": 6800, "typical_volume": 694.5, "trend": 43.44, "fair_value": 47.247047, "relative_strength": 29.355168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.739413, "energy": 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"typical_volume": 2737.85, "trend": 26.036333, "fair_value": 53.862307, "relative_strength": -48.757389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.121151, "energy": 45.761244, "activity_lines": [ 19.420666, 19.803091, 21.028857, 22.750667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.389999, "volume": 6, "typical_volume": 2070.85, "trend": 25.477, "fair_value": 53.669615, "relative_strength": -42.478574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.948148, "energy": 30.027276, "activity_lines": [ 20.555999, 20.218, 21.00919, 22.515419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.860001, "volume": 134, "typical_volume": 1465.2, "trend": 24.833333, "fair_value": 53.460384, "relative_strength": -47.484497, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.69493, "energy": 22.550376, "activity_lines": [ 20.602, 20.150364, 20.768191, 22.153032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.4, "volume": 57, "typical_volume": 1394.0, "trend": 24.374333, "fair_value": 53.320064, "relative_strength": -32.672924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.95184, "energy": 14.912059, "activity_lines": [ 22.354, 21.099455, 21.104238, 22.189591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.040001, "volume": 1415, "typical_volume": 1347.65, "trend": 23.743, "fair_value": 53.136987, "relative_strength": -41.190422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.641337, "energy": 17.222607, "activity_lines": [ 22.143334, 21.155273, 21.032143, 21.974473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }