{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dbf4f3b-ad1a-47c3-82c8-8615f6ef4468", "symbol": "8227", "name": "Progate Group Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.347, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.321, "architecture_energy": 44.415, "architecture_maturity": 5.553, "architecture_confidence": 76.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.83, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 23.59, "deceleration": 51.21, "rotation_down": 63.24, "downward_expansion": 50.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.766667, 158.619635, 171.792608, 166.605076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 151.5, "trend_reference": 158.541447, "distance_from_trend": -0.044414, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 188.021612, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.942574, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.140859, "excess_performance": -0.300513, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194242, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.140859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.863046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5149705, "relative_activity": 0.763915, "balance": 0.863046, "dry_up": 0.450912, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200907, "annualized_volatility": 0.781905, "from_high_reference": -0.386044, "from_low_reference": 0.352877 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 158.541447, "fair_value_reference": 188.021612, "structural_low": 111.983596, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020248, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0967, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189102, "worst_return": -0.22006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.50641, "worst_return": -0.120401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.227582, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.005224, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.38141, "worst_return": -0.263914, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": -0.400602, "energy": 10.186165, "activity_lines": [ 165.6, 176.862997, 178.353455, 168.979384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.0, "volume": 3084376, "typical_volume": 6534548.45, "trend": 158.006597, "fair_value": 188.235354, "relative_strength": -34.573366, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.293736, "energy": 27.313515, "activity_lines": [ 154.266667, 168.49091, 175.784644, 167.871059 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.0, "volume": 1694524, "typical_volume": 6552078.45, "trend": 158.116139, "fair_value": 188.053107, "relative_strength": -33.540748, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.056019, "energy": 38.022013, "activity_lines": [ 147.333333, 162.372607, 173.524679, 167.031924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 151.5, "volume": 5149705, "typical_volume": 6741203.0, "trend": 158.541447, "fair_value": 188.021612, "relative_strength": -31.942574, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.321045, "energy": 44.41531, "activity_lines": [ 146.766667, 158.619635, 171.792608, 166.605076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }