{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dc034b2-4327-4900-810f-e4d4c669b700", "symbol": "603958", "name": "Harson Trading (China) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.249, "architecture_energy": 85.493, "architecture_maturity": 28.446, "architecture_confidence": 84.107, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.81, "rotation_up": 9.17, "upward_expansion": 21.64, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 78.43, "downward_expansion": 97.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.974667, 15.219454, 17.979905, 18.913419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 14.78, "trend_reference": 19.209, "distance_from_trend": -0.230569, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.066923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050692, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.082248, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201081, "excess_performance": -0.157877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050692, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.76064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.387625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17753352, "relative_activity": 0.539648, "balance": 1.204424, "dry_up": 0.81481, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152753, "annualized_volatility": 0.656071, "from_high_reference": -0.46235, "from_low_reference": 0.255735 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.209, "fair_value_reference": 14.066923, "structural_low": 11.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027191, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017066, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.148026, "worst_return": -0.132696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.284539, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.314631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.372855, "worst_return": -0.084253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.394183, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.340334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.470395, "worst_return": -0.173167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.224398, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.061831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034144, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021177, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055718, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062051, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156843, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054383, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 8.1, "volume": 11022800, "typical_volume": 9936198.35, "trend": 6.923333, "fair_value": 6.689949, "relative_strength": 16.962855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.821455, 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"trend": 19.141667, "fair_value": 13.986154, "relative_strength": -25.096823, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -55.428415, "energy": 80.584991, "activity_lines": [ 14.549333, 16.500727, 19.136666, 19.565118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.42, "volume": 31361803, "typical_volume": 34084831.95, "trend": 19.159667, "fair_value": 14.022115, "relative_strength": -22.004806, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.164591, "energy": 79.870981, "activity_lines": [ 13.894, 15.633818, 18.477619, 19.195978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.78, "volume": 17753352, "typical_volume": 32898021.2, "trend": 19.209, "fair_value": 14.066923, "relative_strength": -16.082248, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.248745, "energy": 85.492776, "activity_lines": [ 13.974667, 15.219454, 17.979905, 18.913419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }