{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dcdb695-f5ef-41ef-be52-e9b41e40ba6b", "symbol": "002996", "name": "Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.727, "architecture_energy": 38.601, "architecture_maturity": 84.618, "architecture_confidence": 62.823, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.04, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 17.17, "deceleration": 66.65, "rotation_down": 40.11, "downward_expansion": 64.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.138, 6.128727, 6.4145, 6.698342 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.27, "trend_reference": 7.108047, "distance_from_trend": -0.117901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.072332, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113447, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.933819, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.255344, "excess_performance": -0.262744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.117901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113447, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.684486, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31399632, "relative_activity": 0.753702, "balance": 0.684486, "dry_up": 0.936911, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074254, "annualized_volatility": 0.344099, "from_high_reference": -0.315502, "from_low_reference": 0.092334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.108047, "fair_value_reference": 7.072332, "structural_low": 5.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": 0.000528, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.324881, "worst_return": -0.147575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014705, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.024827, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.187679, "worst_return": -0.2493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07315, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041163, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.205144, "worst_return": -0.242464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.982074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.1, "volume": 49519876, "typical_volume": 50134046.3, "trend": 7.243713, "fair_value": 7.133304, "relative_strength": -18.834381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.942761, "energy": 61.057889, "activity_lines": [ 6.080667, 6.235539, 6.607663, 6.906222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.92, "volume": 42808788, "typical_volume": 47186092.95, "trend": 7.19738, "fair_value": 7.11076, "relative_strength": -20.856794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.960391, "energy": 56.113313, "activity_lines": [ 6.024667, 6.14408, 6.513894, 6.820821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.18, "volume": 32400456, "typical_volume": 44487506.95, "trend": 7.151047, "fair_value": 7.090992, "relative_strength": -15.469618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.750224, "energy": 49.090544, "activity_lines": [ 6.078667, 6.119103, 6.455554, 6.755184 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.27, "volume": 31399632, "typical_volume": 41660526.8, "trend": 7.108047, "fair_value": 7.072332, "relative_strength": -17.933819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.726573, "energy": 38.601314, "activity_lines": [ 6.138, 6.128727, 6.4145, 6.698342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }