{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dcdf6c2-5014-4d67-ab62-df1b5ed65683", "symbol": "SBEME", "name": "UBS BBG USD EM Sovereign UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.497, "architecture_energy": 22.039, "architecture_maturity": 66.952, "architecture_confidence": 71.63, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.38, "rotation_up": 24.5, "upward_expansion": 56.04, "deceleration": 87.99, "rotation_down": 39.53, "downward_expansion": 22.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.086, 13.128, 13.111562, 13.075006 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.14, "trend_reference": 13.0434, "distance_from_trend": 0.007406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.766404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.786159, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.00628, "excess_performance": -0.164612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007406, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021576, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041333, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00628, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625179, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57252, "relative_activity": 0.773528, "balance": 0.625179, "dry_up": 0.960729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00925, "annualized_volatility": 0.060986, "from_high_reference": -0.007853, "from_low_reference": 0.068466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.0434, "fair_value_reference": 11.766404, "structural_low": 12.52, "invalidation": 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13.0242, "fair_value": 11.697609, "relative_strength": -11.793739, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.181978, "energy": 66.455158, "activity_lines": [ 13.209867, 13.171855, 13.093667, 13.062043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.16, "volume": 101503, "typical_volume": 141892.0, "trend": 13.0316, "fair_value": 11.715314, "relative_strength": -10.504824, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.297621, "energy": 50.799166, "activity_lines": [ 13.1932, 13.176473, 13.105705, 13.070804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.036, "volume": 76376, "typical_volume": 115660.9, "trend": 13.034667, "fair_value": 11.731724, "relative_strength": -10.930529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.91383, "energy": 20.183169, "activity_lines": [ 13.1372, 13.157818, 13.105981, 13.071088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.992, "volume": 49299, "typical_volume": 82415.5, "trend": 13.0366, "fair_value": 11.748481, "relative_strength": -11.522633, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.778085, "energy": 15.632585, "activity_lines": [ 13.079467, 13.129636, 13.102143, 13.068335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.14, "volume": 57252, "typical_volume": 74014.1, "trend": 13.0434, "fair_value": 11.766404, "relative_strength": -12.786159, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.496881, "energy": 22.039268, "activity_lines": [ 13.086, 13.128, 13.111562, 13.075006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }