{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dd027e5-7b06-42ec-810e-97420c86c03b", "symbol": "300413", "name": "Mango Excellent Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.286, "architecture_energy": 45.825, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.288, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.0, "rotation_up": 27.83, "upward_expansion": 20.85, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.44, "downward_expansion": 68.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.660667, 15.381107, 16.408114, 17.80537 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.0, "trend_reference": 19.98551, "distance_from_trend": -0.19942, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.121457, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.33669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.773506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37181, "excess_performance": -0.37921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19942, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144859, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.33669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.337735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004023, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293965, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123592679, "relative_activity": 1.835739, "balance": 0.293965, "dry_up": 1.642927, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079879, "annualized_volatility": 0.327344, "from_high_reference": -0.560681, "from_low_reference": 0.135603 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.98551, "fair_value_reference": 24.121457, "structural_low": 14.089436, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.03959, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": -0.033289, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.303714, "worst_return": -0.223571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.058892, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.034575, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.456981, "worst_return": -0.336851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.156664, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.086228, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.480769, "worst_return": -0.246734, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.419077, "energy": 73.944362, "activity_lines": [ 14.955036, 15.730947, 17.505215, 19.135781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.14, "volume": 117062179, "typical_volume": 62690693.3, "trend": 20.82551, "fair_value": 24.452819, "relative_strength": -36.473794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.633779, "energy": 66.97518, "activity_lines": [ 14.991275, 15.452487, 17.134952, 18.749985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.6, "volume": 99266643, "typical_volume": 62767442.8, "trend": 20.519844, "fair_value": 24.337806, "relative_strength": -38.405538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.643692, "energy": 66.892866, "activity_lines": [ 14.882935, 15.168209, 16.75726, 18.348339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.370001, "volume": 102524345, "typical_volume": 64238520.65, "trend": 20.266177, "fair_value": 24.224154, "relative_strength": -29.300572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.286065, "energy": 54.308146, "activity_lines": [ 15.409159, 15.291749, 16.586473, 18.080607 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.0, "volume": 123592679, "typical_volume": 67325856.5, "trend": 19.98551, "fair_value": 24.121457, "relative_strength": -33.773506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.286222, "energy": 45.825366, "activity_lines": [ 15.660667, 15.381107, 16.408114, 17.80537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }