{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dd13f9c-ef0d-401a-9631-57a0eef13a78", "symbol": "TGPRO", "name": "Thai-German Products Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.78, "architecture_energy": 24.634, "architecture_maturity": 70.744, "architecture_confidence": 82.423, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.8, "rotation_up": 20.05, "upward_expansion": 1.92, "deceleration": 53.31, "rotation_down": 43.23, "downward_expansion": 72.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.030727, 0.032333, 0.034323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.038, "distance_from_trend": -0.210526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.086859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.654613, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.414504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.592325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.654613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.454145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.333258, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1396500, "relative_activity": 0.170441, "balance": 7.333258, "dry_up": 0.924112, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.410256, "annualized_volatility": 0.95243, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.038, "fair_value_reference": 0.086859, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.243902, "directional_follow_through": 0.439024, "median_excess_return": -0.01097, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.160256, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.08869, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.21875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.183761, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.860213, "energy": 30.376969, "activity_lines": [ 0.032667, 0.033455, 0.034952, 0.037656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.03, "volume": 24763000, "typical_volume": 12260525.0, "trend": 0.041, "fair_value": 0.089936, "relative_strength": -48.274567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.214755, "energy": 32.593912, "activity_lines": [ 0.031333, 0.032909, 0.034333, 0.036903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 13940100, "typical_volume": 12331530.0, "trend": 0.040333, "fair_value": 0.089167, "relative_strength": -48.181937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.604421, "energy": 38.767723, "activity_lines": [ 0.030667, 0.032364, 0.033762, 0.036194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 12453700, "typical_volume": 9887095.0, "trend": 0.039667, "fair_value": 0.088397, "relative_strength": -47.914483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.692132, "energy": 33.137721, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.031818, 0.033238, 0.035527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.03, "volume": 2496300, "typical_volume": 9744645.0, "trend": 0.039, "fair_value": 0.087564, "relative_strength": -46.421085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.498571, "energy": 26.128475, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.031273, 0.032762, 0.034903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 1396500, "typical_volume": 8193435.0, "trend": 0.038, "fair_value": 0.086859, "relative_strength": -45.414504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.779979, "energy": 24.633564, "activity_lines": [ 0.03, 0.030727, 0.032333, 0.034323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }