{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dd42c59-652a-4fe4-ab63-b78f353fbb4c", "symbol": "001872", "name": "China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.084, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.592, "architecture_energy": 21.514, "architecture_maturity": 29.762, "architecture_confidence": 60.611, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.86, "rotation_up": 56.91, "upward_expansion": 39.29, "deceleration": 43.99, "rotation_down": 14.75, "downward_expansion": 14.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.574889, 20.938452, 21.144136, 21.237553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.66, "trend_reference": 21.067645, "distance_from_trend": 0.028117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.904572, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.885345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.101169, "excess_performance": 0.09377, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028117, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075003, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008853, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114486, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.683154, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11813791, "relative_activity": 0.881518, "balance": 0.683154, "dry_up": 1.633014, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070002, "annualized_volatility": 0.294528, "from_high_reference": -0.100872, "from_low_reference": 0.157386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.067645, "fair_value_reference": 18.904572, "structural_low": 18.714582, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.00756, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.01734, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.113172, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011139, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.0025, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.079208, "worst_return": -0.083172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027634, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.114193, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23614, "worst_return": -0.027751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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18.825569, "relative_strength": 0.897034, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.506534, "energy": 7.858168, "activity_lines": [ 20.789018, 20.505884, 21.063844, 21.115185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.139999, "volume": 18426064, "typical_volume": 14134265.45, "trend": 20.989979, "fair_value": 18.86688, "relative_strength": 8.234446, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.562649, "energy": 18.504069, "activity_lines": [ 21.355265, 20.76135, 21.126609, 21.194326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.66, "volume": 11813791, "typical_volume": 13401644.85, "trend": 21.067645, "fair_value": 18.904572, "relative_strength": 0.885345, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.5916, "energy": 21.514218, "activity_lines": [ 21.574889, 20.938452, 21.144136, 21.237553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }