{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dd82b6b-b588-46bd-8c23-55f1e0a3f9d7", "symbol": "EART", "name": "Global X Disruptive Materials ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.027, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.354, "architecture_energy": 40.556, "architecture_maturity": 9.913, "architecture_confidence": 85.025, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.62, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 7.22, "deceleration": 46.67, "rotation_down": 57.97, "downward_expansion": 78.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.95128, 28.219867, 29.538496, 30.113028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 30.355, "trend_reference": 30.89702, "distance_from_trend": -0.017543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.343401, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.569269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.19937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049327, "excess_performance": -0.23678, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017543, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.569269, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204239, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.741569, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 135213, "relative_activity": 1.455775, "balance": 0.741569, "dry_up": 1.178682, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079436, "annualized_volatility": 0.460723, "from_high_reference": -0.177815, "from_low_reference": 0.576388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.89702, "fair_value_reference": 19.343401, "structural_low": 24.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010944, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.028485, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.346645, "worst_return": -0.089325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.236307, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.019072, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.336502, "worst_return": -0.125452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.132851, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.032098, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.984057, "worst_return": -0.175752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 26.888933, 27.960405, 29.51873, 30.148082 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.355, "volume": 135213, "typical_volume": 92880.4, "trend": 30.89702, "fair_value": 19.343401, "relative_strength": -5.19937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.354326, "energy": 40.556121, "activity_lines": [ 27.95128, 28.219867, 29.538496, 30.113028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }