{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7dd9ad39-1478-4232-a4d2-c33f4f0bc313", "symbol": "SQHP", "name": "Global X S&P 500 Quarterly Tail Hedge UCITS ETF A USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.584, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.557, "architecture_energy": 31.467, "architecture_maturity": 51.326, "architecture_confidence": 73.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.05, "rotation_up": 36.05, "upward_expansion": 62.8, "deceleration": 88.17, "rotation_down": 25.93, "downward_expansion": 15.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.581267, 15.594436, 15.516881, 15.439843 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.746, "trend_reference": 15.3577, "distance_from_trend": 0.025284, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.420705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091902, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.764089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.038517, "excess_performance": -0.012718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00635, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047641, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.038517, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.308359, "dry_up": 0.067797, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011558, "annualized_volatility": 0.067584, "from_high_reference": -0.00285, "from_low_reference": 0.082795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.3577, "fair_value_reference": 14.420705, "structural_low": 15.003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010105, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006463, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.040419, "worst_return": -0.023799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.051621, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086314, "worst_return": -0.021178, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074712, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089182, "worst_return": 0.010329, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.050541, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050541, "worst_return": 0.050541, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075442, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024138, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003905, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014093, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004525, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006239, "active": 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15.424329, 15.366742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.552, "volume": 3717, "typical_volume": 3934.25, "trend": 15.323333, "fair_value": 14.35566, "relative_strength": -3.116948, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.706283, "energy": 72.430865, "activity_lines": [ 15.6384, 15.592073, 15.443848, 15.381978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.462, "volume": 531, "typical_volume": 3929.9, "trend": 15.33, "fair_value": 14.371622, "relative_strength": -4.434706, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.195279, "energy": 40.807632, "activity_lines": [ 15.576667, 15.580036, 15.453724, 15.390925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.595, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3905.25, "trend": 15.338833, "fair_value": 14.388115, "relative_strength": -4.657314, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.819639, "energy": 28.513463, "activity_lines": [ 15.563333, 15.586709, 15.475743, 15.408022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.432, "volume": 531, "typical_volume": 3916.1, "trend": 15.345933, "fair_value": 14.403436, "relative_strength": -6.5697, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.27795, "energy": 23.813231, "activity_lines": [ 15.508, 15.562182, 15.48161, 15.414032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.746, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3916.1, "trend": 15.3577, "fair_value": 14.420705, "relative_strength": -4.764089, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.557088, "energy": 31.467229, "activity_lines": [ 15.581267, 15.594436, 15.516881, 15.439843 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }