{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ddd391b-e0b2-4d0d-ad44-3b4a4cbe0a13", "symbol": "RES", "name": "RPC Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.754, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.605, "architecture_energy": 52.452, "architecture_maturity": 8.807, "architecture_confidence": 90.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.94, "rotation_up": 16.9, "upward_expansion": 10.01, "deceleration": 43.15, "rotation_down": 58.95, "downward_expansion": 83.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.739333, 5.851455, 6.254355, 6.373399 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.87, "trend_reference": 6.415918, "distance_from_trend": -0.085088, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.036326, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.630039, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030515, "excess_performance": -0.09511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085088, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032497, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027554, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0963, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212756, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030515, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.211033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6592636, "relative_activity": 0.745645, "balance": 1.211033, "dry_up": 0.789517, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09669, "annualized_volatility": 0.487427, "from_high_reference": -0.276538, "from_low_reference": 0.434605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.415918, "fair_value_reference": 6.036326, "structural_low": 5.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.015172, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.001163, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.137066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.090868, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.036747, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.34748, "worst_return": -0.110471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.199113, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.169832, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.090185, "worst_return": -0.159135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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9456293.5, "trend": 6.409707, "fair_value": 6.062095, "relative_strength": -9.416938, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.111106, "energy": 64.008654, "activity_lines": [ 5.715333, 6.025818, 6.419933, 6.460137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.61, "volume": 8668842, "typical_volume": 9255962.2, "trend": 6.414731, "fair_value": 6.048584, "relative_strength": -10.491253, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.233359, "energy": 66.561453, "activity_lines": [ 5.674667, 5.901818, 6.322684, 6.408543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.87, "volume": 6592636, "typical_volume": 8841517.25, "trend": 6.415918, "fair_value": 6.036326, "relative_strength": -9.630039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.605185, "energy": 52.452283, "activity_lines": [ 5.739333, 5.851455, 6.254355, 6.373399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }