{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ddf5c6c-bffe-4910-9057-4a5f3bddfa9b", "symbol": "A1EP34", "name": "American Electric Power Company, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -54.802, "architecture_energy": 45.425, "architecture_maturity": 19.701, "architecture_confidence": 75.529, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 18.93, "upward_expansion": 13.16, "deceleration": 59.58, "rotation_down": 69.45, "downward_expansion": 47.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 319.654004, 330.501821, 332.098964, 333.002649 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 295.040009, "trend_reference": 331.825595, "distance_from_trend": -0.110858, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 267.182167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104265, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.606912, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104855, "excess_performance": -0.047807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104265, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104855, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.282245, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 205, "relative_activity": 0.73741, "balance": 0.282245, "dry_up": 0.432554, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051099, "annualized_volatility": 0.264372, "from_high_reference": -0.181581, "from_low_reference": 0.04949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 331.825595, "fair_value_reference": 267.182167, "structural_low": 295.040009, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070047, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.051124, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.130602, "worst_return": -0.006542, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.148742, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.186696, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17149, "worst_return": 0.030684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.116699, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.209873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20481, "worst_return": 0.076227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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338.241339, 333.456514, 334.229193, 332.251678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 360.5, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 252.25, "trend": 329.624865, "fair_value": 262.726187, "relative_strength": 5.328933, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.964625, "energy": 82.014712, "activity_lines": [ 346.922671, 338.65278, 336.684258, 334.333296 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 342.649994, "volume": 151, "typical_volume": 259.65, "trend": 330.742152, "fair_value": 263.708248, "relative_strength": -1.823333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.570888, "energy": 69.315525, "activity_lines": [ 347.288001, 340.123275, 337.254827, 335.173627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 342.720001, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 263.25, "trend": 331.650619, "fair_value": 264.690757, "relative_strength": 0.6315, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.512787, "energy": 70.075823, "activity_lines": [ 346.977334, 341.450729, 337.785296, 335.946392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 330.0, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 268.85, "trend": 332.132116, "fair_value": 265.594101, "relative_strength": -2.966085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.028087, "energy": 28.490414, "activity_lines": [ 341.820666, 340.354183, 337.057237, 335.8399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 325.380005, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 268.95, "trend": 332.265283, "fair_value": 266.486874, "relative_strength": -6.060796, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.728039, "energy": 13.14417, "activity_lines": [ 334.724001, 338.195093, 335.95936, 335.40428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 295.040009, "volume": 205, "typical_volume": 278.0, "trend": 331.825595, "fair_value": 267.182167, "relative_strength": -11.606912, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.801524, "energy": 45.42546, "activity_lines": [ 319.654004, 330.501821, 332.098964, 333.002649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }