{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7de53557-8a20-4dad-a2e5-00d924a61e66", "symbol": "UEF5", "name": "UBS MSCI EM Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.779, "architecture_energy": 24.767, "architecture_maturity": 67.007, "architecture_confidence": 89.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.46, "rotation_up": 26.11, "upward_expansion": 58.69, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 30.91, "downward_expansion": 20.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.714333, 19.991309, 19.755885, 19.078498 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.014999, "trend_reference": 18.194026, "distance_from_trend": 0.100086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.425612, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.490807, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.891532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.221326, "excess_performance": 0.156686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.490807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108915, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168921, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 305197, "relative_activity": 0.74992, "balance": 0.603455, "dry_up": 1.094255, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049544, "annualized_volatility": 0.247135, "from_high_reference": -0.060329, "from_low_reference": 0.498867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.194026, "fair_value_reference": 13.425612, "structural_low": 15.524, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002119, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.020452, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.137813, "worst_return": -0.029988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.115625, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.031407, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285118, "worst_return": -0.022661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03376, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367886, "worst_return": -0.016945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009562, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052176, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.638885, "energy": 44.286698, "activity_lines": [ 20.18, 20.252164, 19.484452, 18.735008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.666, "volume": 305347, "typical_volume": 411198.55, "trend": 17.9208, "fair_value": 13.311905, "relative_strength": 15.526622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.201015, "energy": 34.376869, "activity_lines": [ 19.926933, 20.170255, 19.5896, 18.857691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.379999, "volume": 549825, "typical_volume": 414695.7, "trend": 18.05168, "fair_value": 13.365651, "relative_strength": 10.894191, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.048669, "energy": 23.968077, "activity_lines": [ 19.6838, 20.022745, 19.650366, 18.951833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.014999, "volume": 305197, "typical_volume": 406972.95, "trend": 18.194026, "fair_value": 13.425612, "relative_strength": 10.891532, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.779041, "energy": 24.767059, "activity_lines": [ 19.714333, 19.991309, 19.755885, 19.078498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }