{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7de8de52-bd80-41a9-8988-c3e433514a0c", "symbol": "AVXC", "name": "Avantis Emerging Markets ex-China Equity ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.928, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.863, "architecture_energy": 16.795, "architecture_maturity": 65.821, "architecture_confidence": 91.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.54, "rotation_up": 17.27, "upward_expansion": 45.23, "deceleration": 87.87, "rotation_down": 38.04, "downward_expansion": 27.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.824673, 80.287152, 80.34736, 78.335262 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 80.2102, "trend_reference": 75.650992, "distance_from_trend": 0.060266, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.163656, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.227918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137374, "excess_performance": -0.05008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091502, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022279, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137374, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.965037, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183517, "relative_activity": 0.978285, "balance": 0.965037, "dry_up": 0.858273, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061323, "annualized_volatility": 0.305782, "from_high_reference": -0.096427, "from_low_reference": 0.452621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.650992, "fair_value_reference": 58.163656, "structural_low": 64.425116, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.16264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16264, "worst_return": 0.16264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.275929, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275929, "worst_return": 0.275929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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80.05977, 77.621659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.7548, "volume": 130409, "typical_volume": 193642.1, "trend": 74.74816, "fair_value": 57.829063, "relative_strength": 5.210055, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.160351, "energy": 21.708033, "activity_lines": [ 79.755453, 81.383945, 80.140649, 77.847121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.272, "volume": 149119, "typical_volume": 190071.45, "trend": 75.167854, "fair_value": 57.985861, "relative_strength": 3.743285, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.858947, "energy": 18.766243, "activity_lines": [ 78.583927, 80.540655, 80.129208, 78.009949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.2102, "volume": 183517, "typical_volume": 187590.6, "trend": 75.650992, "fair_value": 58.163656, "relative_strength": 2.227918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.863438, "energy": 16.79476, "activity_lines": [ 78.824673, 80.287152, 80.34736, 78.335262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }