{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7df30706-2521-4b43-8656-895e01ae8e0b", "symbol": "601108", "name": "Caitong Securities Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.967, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.413, "architecture_energy": 10.541, "architecture_maturity": 21.058, "architecture_confidence": 72.368, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.82, "rotation_up": 42.63, "upward_expansion": 36.28, "deceleration": 37.67, "rotation_down": 24.0, "downward_expansion": 17.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.408667, 8.382103, 8.241818, 8.242189 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.46, "trend_reference": 8.335621, "distance_from_trend": 0.014921, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.765512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.741306, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0913, "excess_performance": -0.048096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014921, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017413, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082023, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62079, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196161536, "relative_activity": 0.909223, "balance": 0.62079, "dry_up": 1.290421, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074419, "annualized_volatility": 0.28569, "from_high_reference": -0.145455, "from_low_reference": 0.163699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.335621, "fair_value_reference": 7.765512, "structural_low": 7.269923, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.011883, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.001525, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.146862, "worst_return": -0.095463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010582, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031809, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.08423, "worst_return": -0.170916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086068, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041307, "worst_return": -0.197441, "sufficient": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.296002, "energy": 29.502539, "activity_lines": [ 8.555771, 8.265664, 8.180418, 8.24218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.22, "volume": 277904979, "typical_volume": 209337622.3, "trend": 8.353954, "fair_value": 7.748875, "relative_strength": 1.931526, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.093949, "energy": 24.52234, "activity_lines": [ 8.495593, 8.28278, 8.187805, 8.233044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.38, "volume": 272622660, "typical_volume": 214358512.8, "trend": 8.344287, "fair_value": 7.75709, "relative_strength": 3.518309, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.020498, "energy": 16.444569, "activity_lines": [ 8.439333, 8.329351, 8.211193, 8.234724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.46, "volume": 196161536, "typical_volume": 215746405.8, "trend": 8.335621, "fair_value": 7.765512, "relative_strength": 1.741306, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.412597, "energy": 10.540854, "activity_lines": [ 8.408667, 8.382103, 8.241818, 8.242189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }