{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7df75d07-71f9-418c-b12f-cb8fb9c0644b", "symbol": "XYL", "name": "Xylem Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 89.512, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.824, "architecture_energy": 13.567, "architecture_maturity": 12.98, "architecture_confidence": 63.896, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.8, "rotation_up": 38.18, "upward_expansion": 35.31, "deceleration": 36.57, "rotation_down": 16.86, "downward_expansion": 41.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.700667, 118.572182, 116.43251, 117.662388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 120.32, "trend_reference": 121.30914, "distance_from_trend": -0.008154, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 122.867263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020732, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.780523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.147207, "excess_performance": -0.272832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008154, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050652, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.918951, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7397816, "relative_activity": 0.735078, "balance": 1.918951, "dry_up": 1.006617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052692, "annualized_volatility": 0.257087, "from_high_reference": -0.212151, "from_low_reference": 0.147246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.30914, "fair_value_reference": 122.867263, "structural_low": 104.877211, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027592, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.039691, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.084109, "worst_return": -0.088933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020336, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117653, "worst_return": -0.275704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.110403, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.114294, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.204654, "worst_return": -0.271061, 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115.747137, 118.346319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.75, "volume": 9910540, "typical_volume": 10027116.7, "trend": 122.559228, "fair_value": 122.631595, "relative_strength": -15.565455, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.002332, "energy": 22.428112, "activity_lines": [ 120.414667, 117.34523, 116.032619, 118.126276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 116.97, "volume": 13348861, "typical_volume": 10236174.6, "trend": 121.921039, "fair_value": 122.728371, "relative_strength": -17.829743, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.008834, "energy": 18.210434, "activity_lines": [ 119.516667, 117.718909, 116.067231, 117.76568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 120.32, "volume": 7397816, "typical_volume": 10063991.3, "trend": 121.30914, "fair_value": 122.867263, "relative_strength": -17.780523, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.823668, "energy": 13.566794, "activity_lines": [ 119.700667, 118.572182, 116.43251, 117.662388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }