{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7df93679-ad7b-4c43-934a-dff97978da80", "symbol": "300739", "name": "Sunshine Global Circuits Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.957, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.935, "architecture_energy": 59.172, "architecture_maturity": 13.282, "architecture_confidence": 58.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.15, "rotation_up": 18.8, "upward_expansion": 22.46, "deceleration": 41.38, "rotation_down": 69.5, "downward_expansion": 59.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.999999, 25.196545, 27.440276, 27.461677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.459999, "trend_reference": 26.539072, "distance_from_trend": -0.11602, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.381643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.432091, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.757978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.238648, "excess_performance": 0.231248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144497, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.432091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.51654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02758, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269999, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.238648, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65949020, "relative_activity": 0.714863, "balance": 1.167462, "dry_up": 0.649242, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212309, "annualized_volatility": 0.921715, "from_high_reference": -0.437419, "from_low_reference": 0.606849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.539072, "fair_value_reference": 16.381643, "structural_low": 17.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03735, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.023695, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.13668, "worst_return": -0.03125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.035262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02688, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03166, "worst_return": -0.102185, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.145072, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.152184, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215444, "worst_return": 0.074701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.100495, 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"2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126782, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.260913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021927, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050968, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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57.685873, "energy": 39.026924, "activity_lines": [ 32.374, 31.817763, 30.338043, 28.533356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.379999, "volume": 68828913, "typical_volume": 125282956.15, "trend": 26.059739, "fair_value": 16.201619, "relative_strength": 19.027147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.342647, "energy": 28.506858, "activity_lines": [ 31.318666, 31.338001, 30.255651, 28.708104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 60398517, "typical_volume": 112791021.85, "trend": 26.204739, "fair_value": 16.248501, "relative_strength": 0.118277, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.765053, "energy": 8.870203, "activity_lines": [ 28.137332, 29.637976, 29.518641, 28.433282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.879999, "volume": 62548965, "typical_volume": 102314706.9, "trend": 26.345406, "fair_value": 16.290732, "relative_strength": -4.649061, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.052249, "energy": 34.550918, "activity_lines": [ 25.056666, 27.912125, 28.744059, 28.089751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.52, "volume": 50684298, "typical_volume": 94898696.95, "trend": 26.369739, "fair_value": 16.319942, "relative_strength": -9.640642, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.022117, "energy": 54.074433, "activity_lines": [ 22.396666, 26.071781, 27.884334, 27.649402 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.459999, "volume": 65949020, "typical_volume": 92254073.65, "trend": 26.539072, "fair_value": 16.381643, "relative_strength": 2.757978, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.9352, "energy": 59.171714, "activity_lines": [ 21.999999, 25.196545, 27.440276, 27.461677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }