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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.833, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.907, "architecture_energy": 77.926, "architecture_maturity": 36.964, "architecture_confidence": 76.072, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.76, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 32.49, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 45.71, "downward_expansion": 80.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 1170.133333, 1169.598257, 1186.545266, 1214.452951 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1170.0, "trend_reference": 1230.997373, "distance_from_trend": -0.049551, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1013.310372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.394245, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042219, "excess_performance": 0.012448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049551, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056006, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009297, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023942, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042219, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 32.518382, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 32.518382, "dry_up": 0.087458, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011997, "annualized_volatility": 0.326813, "from_high_reference": -0.222804, "from_low_reference": 0.201207 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1230.997373, "fair_value_reference": 1013.310372, "structural_low": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.716382, "energy": 56.931649, "activity_lines": [ 1168.17002, 1178.947808, 1214.213836, 1225.9995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1170.0, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 778.0, "trend": 1211.490163, "fair_value": 1010.835369, "relative_strength": 3.059376, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.900586, "energy": 54.517588, "activity_lines": [ 1169.42201, 1175.763011, 1206.026153, 1223.743007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 704.45, "trend": 1218.004673, "fair_value": 1011.641211, "relative_strength": 3.375121, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.335947, "energy": 47.487403, "activity_lines": [ 1170.164713, 1172.447487, 1198.433539, 1221.066222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 696.9, "trend": 1224.501023, "fair_value": 1012.475792, "relative_strength": 2.478221, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.607101, "energy": 61.263204, "activity_lines": [ 1170.4, 1170.313781, 1191.719362, 1217.969146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1170.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 571.7, "trend": 1230.997373, "fair_value": 1013.310372, "relative_strength": 2.394245, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.906781, "energy": 77.925837, "activity_lines": [ 1170.133333, 1169.598257, 1186.545266, 1214.452951 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }