{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e00bf90-aa96-46dc-9f3a-d7e4a4557996", "symbol": "VGVA", "name": "Vanguard U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF GBP Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.665, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.863, "architecture_energy": 18.333, "architecture_maturity": 14.651, "architecture_confidence": 71.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.83, "rotation_up": 15.74, "upward_expansion": 11.63, "deceleration": 56.61, "rotation_down": 49.83, "downward_expansion": 65.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.4458, 20.506073, 20.480867, 20.488347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.549, "trend_reference": 20.540183, "distance_from_trend": 0.000429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.041802, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025307, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.506111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006046, "excess_performance": -0.057282, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00123, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001964, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016487, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586617, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110987, "relative_activity": 1.060231, "balance": 0.586617, "dry_up": 1.047968, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016651, "annualized_volatility": 0.075519, "from_high_reference": -0.033852, "from_low_reference": 0.041515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.540183, "fair_value_reference": 20.041802, "structural_low": 19.908001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000486, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.004982, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.041921, "worst_return": -0.061463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.000223, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.040563, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.0207, "worst_return": -0.075181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015892, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082247, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019025, "worst_return": -0.14402, 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.697069, "energy": 12.328559, "activity_lines": [ 20.5824, 20.565491, 20.486324, 20.516232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.367001, "volume": 113439, "typical_volume": 108229.15, "trend": 20.56125, "fair_value": 20.02212, "relative_strength": -7.512468, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.611184, "energy": 14.736813, "activity_lines": [ 20.501601, 20.54071, 20.478577, 20.503122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.334999, "volume": 97694, "typical_volume": 104962.55, "trend": 20.55175, "fair_value": 20.030455, "relative_strength": -8.472658, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.875048, "energy": 22.713196, "activity_lines": [ 20.424133, 20.502946, 20.469376, 20.488525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.549, "volume": 110987, "typical_volume": 104681.9, "trend": 20.540183, "fair_value": 20.041802, "relative_strength": -7.506111, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.863382, "energy": 18.333494, "activity_lines": [ 20.4458, 20.506073, 20.480867, 20.488347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }