{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e021d4c-141d-4f47-8a43-c2d2a4605354", "symbol": "POST", "name": "Post Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.608, "architecture_energy": 49.612, "architecture_maturity": 39.665, "architecture_confidence": 87.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.41, "rotation_up": 18.95, "upward_expansion": 5.9, "deceleration": 52.96, "rotation_down": 57.77, "downward_expansion": 76.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.121333, 87.746364, 91.283333, 94.051247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.69, "trend_reference": 97.544667, "distance_from_trend": -0.193293, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 103.257628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.603014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.313411, "excess_performance": -0.439036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229483, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30603, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751009, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7661267, "relative_activity": 1.869731, "balance": 0.751009, "dry_up": 1.214923, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093177, "annualized_volatility": 0.302023, "from_high_reference": -0.329042, "from_low_reference": 0.014046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.544667, "fair_value_reference": 103.257628, "structural_low": 77.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.018296, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.014021, "regime_survival": 0.619048, "best_return": 0.1853, "worst_return": -0.091308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007131, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006811, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.241743, "worst_return": -0.144995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061597, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028446, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.245996, "worst_return": -0.040782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": -76.84107, "energy": 79.798405, "activity_lines": [ 91.116667, 94.624364, 97.57081, 99.109032 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 89.41, "volume": 4618804, "typical_volume": 3887791.2, "trend": 99.828667, "fair_value": 103.220577, "relative_strength": -19.853455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.697348, "energy": 74.527766, "activity_lines": [ 90.187333, 93.194364, 96.514286, 98.405419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 92.78, "volume": 3786281, "typical_volume": 3785766.6, "trend": 99.721333, "fair_value": 103.260385, "relative_strength": -18.066612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.854351, "energy": 55.000281, "activity_lines": [ 90.898667, 92.598545, 95.898714, 97.950667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 86.28, "volume": 4510105, "typical_volume": 3857311.15, "trend": 99.306, "fair_value": 103.259359, "relative_strength": -24.26599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.649621, "energy": 54.753319, "activity_lines": [ 89.380667, 91.018545, 94.755143, 97.083484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 86.86, "volume": 3719220, "typical_volume": 3895695.05, "trend": 98.840333, "fair_value": 103.255705, "relative_strength": -22.0158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.90478, "energy": 49.05721, "activity_lines": [ 88.332667, 89.855273, 93.764286, 96.280516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.91, "volume": 4411984, "typical_volume": 3972266.05, "trend": 98.498667, "fair_value": 103.293526, "relative_strength": -17.388518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.698901, "energy": 40.899342, "activity_lines": [ 89.053333, 89.704545, 93.251714, 95.768882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.41, "volume": 4120235, "typical_volume": 4006297.85, "trend": 98.224667, "fair_value": 103.319231, "relative_strength": -17.308771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.569169, "energy": 36.85392, "activity_lines": [ 89.774, 89.829455, 92.856476, 95.311548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.69, "volume": 7661267, "typical_volume": 4097524.65, "trend": 97.544667, "fair_value": 103.257628, "relative_strength": -30.603014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.608446, "energy": 49.612376, "activity_lines": [ 86.121333, 87.746364, 91.283333, 94.051247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }