{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e0891c6-8fca-4a28-9600-d70a36ddd7b2", "symbol": "TCH-F79", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) EURO STOXX 50", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.119, "architecture_energy": 63.497, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.531, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.32, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 293.526667, 288.934545, 7158.935238, 12297.056774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 297.8, "trend_reference": 18321.883333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23939.785256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.821186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989576, "excess_performance": -1.018477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98756, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.043158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.714075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005284, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10218, "relative_activity": 3.022853, "balance": 1.005284, "dry_up": 1.483914, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.231854, "annualized_volatility": 6.342421, "from_high_reference": -0.989912, "from_low_reference": 0.102963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18321.883333, "fair_value_reference": 23939.785256, "structural_low": 270.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.003242, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.026083, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.185612, "worst_return": -0.989835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048217, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054874, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.21773, "worst_return": -0.989666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057917, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049873, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.198137, "worst_return": -0.094813, "sufficient": 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"direction": -65.958198, "energy": 67.998381, "activity_lines": [ 286.453333, 1696.494545, 10036.562857, 14804.234839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 297.6, "volume": 7472, "typical_volume": 3236.8, "trend": 19262.29, "fair_value": 24078.837821, "relative_strength": -98.850512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.548388, "energy": 67.345723, "activity_lines": [ 290.58, 756.583636, 8534.662381, 13520.572258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 297.8, "volume": 10218, "typical_volume": 3380.25, "trend": 18321.883333, "fair_value": 23939.785256, "relative_strength": -98.821186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.119414, "energy": 63.49662, "activity_lines": [ 293.526667, 288.934545, 7158.935238, 12297.056774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }