{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e09b8ee-8d08-45d9-9777-85d955cc1348", "symbol": "NDX1", "name": "Nordex SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.342, "architecture_energy": 50.784, "architecture_maturity": 6.735, "architecture_confidence": 56.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.63, "rotation_up": 20.02, "upward_expansion": 20.87, "deceleration": 41.43, "rotation_down": 66.41, "downward_expansion": 60.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.214667, 40.829819, 42.232953, 42.389075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.84, "trend_reference": 41.283333, "distance_from_trend": -0.059184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.211718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.921658, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.713446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.186316, "excess_performance": 0.121677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.921658, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.721507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047134, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.570679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.344298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2440612, "relative_activity": 1.050229, "balance": 0.344298, "dry_up": 1.081857, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100412, "annualized_volatility": 0.515713, "from_high_reference": -0.248743, "from_low_reference": 1.032444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.283333, "fair_value_reference": 20.211718, "structural_low": 31.280001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.013438, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010554, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050551, "worst_return": -0.077428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.167739, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.133362, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167739, "worst_return": 0.167739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.071232, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.00633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.071232, "worst_return": -0.071232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.259615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.152827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.422872, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.942081, "energy": 6.880289, "activity_lines": [ 42.281334, 42.600364, 43.589905, 42.70886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.040001, "volume": 1920451, "typical_volume": 2351457.8, "trend": 40.792667, "fair_value": 19.871718, "relative_strength": 14.921234, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.543161, "energy": 15.194, "activity_lines": [ 41.104001, 42.088001, 43.214858, 42.68443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.44, "volume": 3186626, "typical_volume": 2374763.9, "trend": 41.065333, "fair_value": 20.038577, "relative_strength": 7.193434, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.500418, "energy": 41.120392, "activity_lines": [ 39.905334, 41.380001, 42.693334, 42.532645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.84, "volume": 2440612, "typical_volume": 2323885.2, "trend": 41.283333, "fair_value": 20.211718, "relative_strength": 4.713446, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.342181, "energy": 50.783595, "activity_lines": [ 39.214667, 40.829819, 42.232953, 42.389075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }