{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e0a455c-2e93-4997-8f22-7e3be84ee158", "symbol": "UD07", "name": "UBS BBG Commodity CMCI SF UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.957, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.692, "architecture_energy": 31.795, "architecture_maturity": 34.286, "architecture_confidence": 57.421, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.89, "rotation_up": 60.79, "upward_expansion": 67.23, "deceleration": 63.83, "rotation_down": 10.75, "downward_expansion": 10.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1657.22, 1639.158182, 1646.804282, 1638.370961 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1659.0, "trend_reference": 1610.826656, "distance_from_trend": 0.029906, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1342.391147, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.235854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.485937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123451, "excess_performance": 0.072216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050183, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.235854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014859, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104711, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.48992, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 657, "relative_activity": 0.168548, "balance": 1.48992, "dry_up": 0.255708, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027736, "annualized_volatility": 0.149629, "from_high_reference": -0.089572, "from_low_reference": 0.33114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1610.826656, "fair_value_reference": 1342.391147, "structural_low": 1446.400024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.010702, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.010107, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.063087, "worst_return": -0.045768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014831, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029623, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.22892, "worst_return": -0.072472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032699, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.041328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.418046, "worst_return": -0.028464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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1634.781813, 1643.588087, 1617.825581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1606.8, "volume": 8269, "typical_volume": 8926.85, "trend": 1577.079987, "fair_value": 1331.609736, "relative_strength": 2.719834, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.447599, "energy": 23.900088, "activity_lines": [ 1599.693333, 1625.930905, 1640.996183, 1620.207732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1642.8, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 5713.55, "trend": 1585.603321, "fair_value": 1334.256531, "relative_strength": 3.866903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.651305, "energy": 19.17461, "activity_lines": [ 1612.106667, 1624.870908, 1641.363327, 1624.447733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1692.7, "volume": 709, "typical_volume": 4784.35, "trend": 1594.936656, "fair_value": 1337.118711, "relative_strength": 5.448756, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.445593, "energy": 21.729563, "activity_lines": [ 1640.26, 1633.572727, 1645.982851, 1631.357196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1648.2, "volume": 2518, "typical_volume": 4219.45, "trend": 1603.549988, "fair_value": 1339.727685, "relative_strength": 1.302441, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.358189, "energy": 23.852463, "activity_lines": [ 1648.98, 1634.856364, 1645.822376, 1634.793541 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1659.0, "volume": 657, "typical_volume": 3898.0, "trend": 1610.826656, "fair_value": 1342.391147, "relative_strength": 1.485937, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.69185, "energy": 31.79489, "activity_lines": [ 1657.22, 1639.158182, 1646.804282, 1638.370961 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }